It really is over. Some people haven't accepted it. But it is. I'm not a Mitt Romney fan, but I can't deny the facts. The important states are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, because they are going to happen in February. Iowa and Nevada are limited to those who participate in caucuses. History tells us that if a candidate doesn't win at least one of these, they're likely to drop out.
Iowa - There's a potential issue for Mitt with Republican activists, but his organization excelled at caucuses. He lost only two, Iowa and West Virginia. Despite having little appeal in Iowa, Romney managed to finish a strong second to Huckabee. I'd anticipate him doing at least that well. He knows how to do caucuses.
New Hampshire - Last time he ran up against McCain here. This time there won't be anyone who is popular locally. In a poll taken last month Romney got 40% of the vote, more than Palin, Gingrich, and Huckabee got combined. This is New England and should be a slam dunk.
Nevada - Mitt's win wasn't nearly as big here, but he was still ahead of Gingrich 34%-21%. Nevada is 7% Mormon. Nearly all of those are Republicans and they turn up heavier in a caucus. Romney could get more than 20% of the vote just with Mormons. So he really doesn't need a lot more help that that.
South Carolina may be troubling for Romney, but he may already have two firsts and a second or possibly three firsts. The field will narrow and he'll have momentum. He'll be playing downhill.
You are nuts. Palin wins the evangelical vote in Iowa, theoretically powering her past Romney. Last time I check Pawlenty was a popular politician in an adjacent state to Iowa.
ReplyDeleteNeither of these people are running, nor are they guaranteed of beating Romney, but I like their chances way more than you seem to.
What do you think of Jerry Brown's political manoeuvrings out there? It's an interesting angle.
trucker vin
Pawlenty is popular in Minnesota, but Iowa isn't Minnesota. I expect that Palin or Huckabee will get the evangelical vote, leaving Romney with a strong second in Iowa. He'll win New Hampshire and Nevada overwhelmingly. It's a question of who's left standing at that point. If two different candidates win Iowa and South Carolina, Romney is the clear frontrunner. Then it's on to the next group of states. Romney knocks caucuses out of the park. In 2008 he wasn't the strongest fiscal or social conservative choice. He'll be better positioned for the fiscal conservative vote without McCain.
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