The Truman Projection

When I looked at the House last week, I looked at Presidents who were elected and then ran for re-election in order to compare apples to apples with Obama. New Presidents average 16.6 House seats above normal, while re-elected Presidents average 6.4. Since "normal" for Democrats right now is 208 seats, regaining the House would be less likely than Republicans maintaining control. It is, however, the best metric for Democrats, even though one of the 7 Presidents was enough above normal for the Democrats to regain the House.

There were several Presidents I excluded, because they didn't win an election before being re-elected.

Gerald Ford - His predecessor resigned amid scandal, hurting his party. That's not going to happen.

Lyndon Johnson - His predecessor was assassinated. That's not going to happen either.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt - Due to the uniqueness of the times, it's difficult to pin down what normal was. In 1936 he gained 12 seats to go to 334. In 1940 he gained 5 seats to go to 267. In 1944 he gained 20 seats to go to 242. This was the Great Depression, of course, and things didn't get that bad.

Harry Truman is the only President not initially elected who could be indicative. He served only a few months shy of a full term. He experienced mid-term elections and got slaughtered, giving the Republicans control of the House and Senate. Obama's mid-term drop was a bit larger than any of the others listed Thursday, but Truman's was the bottom falling out. Of course, Truman came roaring back and gained 75 seats, giving the Democrats 263. That would be a total more in line with a new President, not re-election.

Why Truman is a good projection for Obama:
1. He couldn't have been more popular than Obama was at his initial election. We know he was more unpopular than Obama was at the mid-term. So if Harry Truman can do it, surely Obama can.

2. He lost control of the House and was able to frame the "do nothing" Republicans as the cause for the country's problems. Obama also lost the House in his mid-term. Of course, Eisenhower and Clinton did as well. Neither regained it when they won re-election.

Why Truman is a poor projection for Obama:
1. In this era, normal was a significant Democratic majority. So while 263 was more than could be expected, the Democrats had a lot of gimmes which were going to come back to them no matter what. Republicans had 4 seats in West Virginia, 3 in Kentucky, 28 in Pennsylvania, 20 in Illinois, 19 in Ohio, and 14 in California. This was unsustainable. Normal now is Republicans in a majority.

2. Republicans control redistricting in much of the country. 1948 wasn't a redistricting year, so the GOP couldn't shore up their 1946 gains.

3. Republicans had been shellacked in the last 4 Presidential elections and hadn't had above 209 reps in 18 years. Now a GOP majority is the norm.

4. The Democrats had a "solid south" in those days. Republicans didn't have any seats in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, or Florida. The Democrats had few seats that potentially could be competitive and the Republicans had to defend huge delegations in a few states.

A Truman projection is possible, but I consider it highly unlikely.