2012: Michigan

Senate: Stabenow (D)
Legislature: Republicans +20 (+47%)
State Senate: Republicans +5 (+24%)
House: Democrats 6 Republicans 9
Redistricting: Republican

The GOP hasn’t won Michigan in a Presidential race since 1988. They’ve lost 12 of the last 13 senatorial elections since 1972. Yet there’s reason for optimism for the GOP. Michigan currently has roughly the same number of people it had 10 years ago. It may end up being the only state in the union with no population growth during that period. The reason why that’s good news for the GOP is that the Democratic areas in and around Detroit have seen a mass exodus of people, while the Republican areas in the rest of the state have actually had population growth.

Republicans control redistricting due to their big 2010 gains and it shouldn’t be hard to make a Democratic seat the one that the state loses. The black majority 13th and 14th congressional districts have shed a lot of people and will have to take in the more ethnic areas in the 15th and 9th to remain majority minority. This will likely mean that the 15th district is split up with Dearborn and Romulus going into the 14th, Ann Arbor into the 7th, and the rest of the district into the 11th. John Dingell is the longest serving member of the House of Representatives, but he’ll likely have an uphill fight if he runs for re-election again. He makes his home in Dearborn. If it is in a majority minority district, Dingel would have little choice but to run against Republicans Thad McCotter in the 11th or Tim Walberg in the 7th.

Both of these districts represent opportunities for the Democrats. Obama won both of these districts. Bush won them in 2004 and both have a current Republican PVI. Even after adding some of the most Democratic areas from the 15th to the 14th, the 7th and 11th figure to be more Democratic in 2012. Republicans should have a 9-5 congressional advantage after 2012, but it’s not hard to see a more favorable Democratic delegation in a more Democratic year. Obama’s worst 2008 showing in any Michigan district was 48%.

Stabenow is vulnerable to a strong candidate and polled as a toss-up recently. The Republicans’ best hope for a strong showing in Michigan would be Michigan native Mitt Romney on the Presidential ticket in 2012.

Republicans don’t need a swing to the right as great as 2010, but with a rightward swing in the electorate they could win the state for the Presidential and Senate elections, and a big majority for congress. Of course, it could go all Democratic. That’s why they call it a swing state.