2012: New York

Senate: Kristin Gillibrand (D)
Legislature: Republicans +7 (+17%)
State Senate: Republicans +2 (+7%)
House: Democrats 21 Republicans 8
Redistricting: Bi-partisan

I wouldn’t put much stock in Republicans beating Gillibrand in 2012 unless Pitaki or Guilani were to run. On the House side, New York was the land of opportunity for Republicans in 2010, winning 6 seats. Yet there will be opportunities for pick-ups in 2012. Republicans lost 3 seats by a total of 6 points, even after winning those six. Their 3 smallest margins of victory added up to 9 points, so they were closer to gaining than losing.

Redistricting can be split into two parts, the 17 downstate districts, which will lose 1, and the 12 upstate districts that’ll also lose 1. As I showed in the post about the VRA, Republicans should have a fighting chance in at least 3 downstate districts, including Steve Israel’s 2nd district. Democrats could try to pack in Democratic votes to protect Israel, since he’s the head of the DCCC, but that would leave Tim Bishop and Gary Ackerman vulnerable.

Since a Democratic district will be eliminated downstate, the trade will likely be that a Republican district will be eliminated upstate. The question is whether they pit two Republicans against each other or an incumbent Republican against a Democrat. It isn’t easy to create safe districts upstate. There are heavily Democratic strongholds like Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany but the Democratic cities aren’t as Democratic as New York City. While it’s possible to make two reasonably safe Democratic and two reasonably safe Republican districts in Western New York, the five Eastern districts will likely be swing districts. Republicans Nan Heyworth (19th), Chris Gibson (20th), Richard Hanna (24th), and Ann Marie Buerkle (25th) and Democrats Paul Tonko (21st), Maurice Hinchey (22nd) and Bill Owens (23rd) will be squeezed from six districts to five. My speculation is that Owens will go up against Hanna. Since all these districts will be swing districts I don’t imagine two Republicans will run against each other in a primary rather than running in two districts.