Redistricting: Congress

A lot of people think the Republicans will make big congressional gains because they control so many state legislatures. That’s unlikely because the GOP made such huge gains in the 2010 election. The good news is that Republicans hold only two districts where John McCain got less than 42% of the vote, and in those he got 41% and 38%. They hold 13 seats John Kerry won, while the Democrats hold 12 seats McCain won.

There are, however, 63 Republicans in districts that are between R +4 or less while only 39 Democrats in D +4 or less. If each party won half of those, the Democrats would pick up 12 seats.

With control of redistricting I’d expect there to be very little if any net change in 2012. Here are the states gaining seats:

Texas: The Democrats will likely take 3 of the 4 new seats, but that’s only because Republicans will want to strengthen incumbent seats. It’s certainly possible that the GOP could win 26 or even 27 seats in a good year, but I think 24 of the 36 districts is the best the Republicans can gerrymander. If they try to take too many seats they run the risk of losing more if things break a little bit wrong.

Florida: Florida was heavily gerrymandered for Republicans in 2002. This year all the Florida balls bounced their way. Right now it’s 19-6 Republican. In a fair redistrict, Republicans would likely get a 15-12 advantage. Yeah, that bad. I don’t think that’ll happen, but 17-10 seems likely.

Arizona: While Republicans control government, redistricting is non-partisan. The state could go from 5-3 Republican to 6-3, but 5-4 is more likely.

Georgia: There are three minority majority Black districts, but after that every district is on the table. I could easily see Georgia going from 8-5 Republicans to 10-4 with another GOP redistricting.

Nevada: This state is leaning Democratic now. The GOP has a 2-1 advantage and probably can expect a 2-2 split.

South Carolina: Unless the Justice Department requires the legislature to create a second majority minority district, Republicans will pick up the new seat.

Utah: Easy GOP pick-up. An additional district enables them to spread the Democrats over more districts. They may be able to finally unseat Jim Matheson.

Washington: Another non-partisan redistricting. The population growth is in the Seattle area, a Democratic stronghold. A new Seattle district will mean that the 4 Republican districts will recede further from that city and be safer for the GOP.

Here are the states that are losing seats:

Illinois – A potential GOP disaster. Republicans control 11 of the 19 congressional districts in a Democratic state. Expect the Dems to combine the down state districts represented by Bobby Schilling and Aaron Schock. Democrats are likely to make the districts represented by Bob Dold and Joe Walsh more Democratic too. Obama won 8 of the 11 districts now held by Republicans, so a 10-8 Democratic advantage with Republicans losing 3 seats might be a good outcome.

Iowa: As I’ve said before, this is a good one for Republicans. Tom Latham (R) will likely face off against Leonard Boswell (D) in a district favorable to Latham. Boswell will be 78 years old and may opt to retire. The other two seats could also be vulnerable. Democrats will almost definitely lose 1 seat here, if not 2 with a Republican pick-up.

Louisiana: Republicans control 6 of the 7 seats. The Democratic seat is majority minority. So there’s no way Republicans don’t lose a seat. The 2nd may stretch into Baton Rouge in order to maintain its minority majority status. The 4th and 5th will need to move south, adding counties from the 6th and 7th. If Lafayette moves into the 6th, the 3rd and 4th would be combined.

Massachusetts: Democrats have all 10 seats. After 2012 they’ll have all 9. They’ll likely eliminate the 7th, 8th, or 9th, depending on who challenges Scott Brown for the Senate.

Michigan: Republicans have a big advantage controlling redistricting, since there is a huge population loss in Democratic southeast Michigan. John Dingell’s district will be eliminated and gerrymandered in a way the Democrats will lose a seat.

Missouri: The Republicans are lucky that the St. Louis area lost the most population. Russ Carnahan (D) could be the big loser, although Todd Akin (R) could also be in trouble. It’s a question of how much of each of their districts Bill Clay’s district takes.

New Jersey: Another commission, this one bi-partisan. Two incumbents will have to run against each other. With population loss in the center of the state, either it’ll be Leonard Lance or Chris Smith on the Republican side and Frank Pallone or Rush Holt on the Democratic.

Pennsylvania: They know how to gerrymander in Pennsylvania and they’ll eliminate Mark Critz’s 12th. They’ll put more Republicans in the 6th, 7th, and 11th, to push them slightly in favor of Republicans. Pennsylvania is such a swing state, however, that it could go anywhere from 14-4 Republican to 12-6 Democratic even with a Republican gerrymander. I expect the Democrats to lose a seat in 2012 to make it 12-6 Republican.

New York: Two seats are going, but it might not be so bad for Republicans. Upstate is Republican enough that the GOP might not lose a seat. Freshmen Anne Marie Burkle or Richard Hanna will likely face off against either Democrats Bill Owens or Maurice Hinchey. The other loss is likely Democratic in Long Island. Republicans hold only two seats downstate. Michael Grimm’s seat is largely Staten Island, so that should retain its integrity. There’s no way Republicans will let Peter King be in a district that’s any less Republican. He’s the only Republican who has been in Washington more than two terms and has high level positions on Republican committees.

Ohio: A 13-5 Republican advantage likely means that there’s no way the GOP doesn’t lose one of the two seats. Democrat Betty Sutton will see her district eliminated. One Republican congressman will likely challenge Sherrod Brown for the senate. His district will be eliminated.

California: Who knows? I think it’ll favor the Demcorats but you could get some “crazy” redistricting. Actually it’s crazy now. We’ll get common sense redistricting. And that could create havoc. Darrell Issa represents the 49th. He’s from Vista, whichis in the southwest corner of his district. Brian Bilbray represents the 50th. He’s from Carlsbad, at the northern edge of his district. Vista and Carlsbad are neighboring cities in North County. In a common redistricting these two cities would be in the same district. It certainly isn’t unusual for two sitting Republican congressmen to be pitted against each other, but there may just be a new district right next to this one that covers no congressmen’s homes. So you may see a big scramble and end up with open seats.

I don’t see redistricting costing any other seats. It’s possible Republicans could squeeze out a Democrat in Indiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, or Wisconsin. Democrats in Maryland are creative, but it won’t be easy to squeeze out another district.