2012: Colorado

Senate: None
Legislature: Republicans +6 (+22%)
State Senate: Republicans +1 (+7%)
House: Democrats 3 Republicans 4
Redistricting: Split

Republicans made significant gains in Colorado in 2010, picking up the two most rural Colorado congressional seats and enough legislature seats to give the GOP the majority in that house. Don’t be fooled, however, into thinking this is a Republican comeback state. The electorate was 33% Democratic/28% Republican/39% independent. This marks the first time there were more Democrats than Republicans in a Colorado electorate. Of the 28 states with exit polls either this November or November 2009, Colorado had the biggest shift away from Republicans compared to both 2008 and 2004.

The only reason Republicans did so well was because they took independents by a 53%-37% spread and independents are the largest group in the state. If independents fall more equally the GOP will get beat in this state. They may still be able to hold onto the state’s rural congressional districts, both of which voted for McCain in 2008. I see little chance of putting this state back in the GOP presidential column. Colorado is the least likely of all the ten states Bush won in 2004 or 2000 to flip back to the Republicans. Even Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, none of which Bush won either time, are more likely to flip Republican. The GOP would be wise to put its resources into another state.