Friday, October 14, 2016

Trump v. Clinton, State and National polls 10/14

Hillary Clinton has gained ground in the last two weeks. She was up 3.1% in the national polls then and is now up 5.9%. That's a healthy win, more than the 3.8% Barack Obama won by in 2012, but not as big as the 7.0% he won by in 2008. It is not the landslide that many predicted or thought was happening after last week's Access Hollywood Trump tape. The state polls show a Clinton 5.4% lead. That's less but we haven't had New York or California polls come out this week. If they moved toward Clinton her lead would be much closer to 5.9%. A new Texas poll yesterday moved the lead from 5.3% to 5.4%. Here is the spreadsheet.

My spreadsheet can be heavily influenced by states that are rarely polled. In those cases I use Internet only polls whose accuracy I question. So Oklahoma moving 9.5% towards Clinton should be taken with a grain of salt. The most heavily polled states don't show a 1.5-2.0% move toward Clinton. Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida show smaller moves or moves toward Trump. Clinton only gains 2.0%+ in Virginia, North Carolina, and Arizona.

The way the Presidential polls look now the results will be just slightly more Democratic than 2012. That year Democrats didn't match Obama's 3.8% win in the House. They won by only 1.2%. If 2016 is similar Democratic gains in the House should be no more than 10-12 seats. Because there are so many seats in the House, a few candidates who run especially good campaigns doesn't influence the net gains and losses very much. The Senate, however, is different because the number of competitive races is small. In 2012, good Democratic candidates resulted in Democratic gains overall, despite an unfavorable map. Either party could do well this time, even with the House not moving much.

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