Monday, October 10, 2016

A Lot of Crazy

I try to add something that isn't being added elsewhere and there isn't a whole lot of that. It's a crazy election between an unconventional candidate who people really dislike and a conventional candidate people dislike a bit less. Each has bombshells come out that would sink other candidates. I'm only linking to the latest ones.

The first poll post Trump video has Hillary Clinton with an 11 point lead. A lot of people on Twitter are taking the poll to confirm what they believe. Democrats are certain this proves Clinton will win big. Anti-Trump Republicans are certain this confirms their predictions of Trump losing big. I take it with a grain of salt. It's only one poll, taken exclusively the two days after the video came out, and from a pollster that's skewed Clinton. Unless Trump is bombarded with video after video this bump might go the way of Clinton's convention bump. The revelations about Clinton's Wall Street speeches was ignored due to the Trump video, but the next bombshell about her might not happen on a day with a Trump video.

In the RCP average Trump has been above 39% since September 3. When the margin was smallest Trump was at 40.3. Now Trump is at 39.7. I think Trump has a floor of his supporters and people who’ll vote for him because they hate Hillary. Clinton has jumped from 41.0 to 44.8. The third party candidates have gone from 11.7 to 9.0. The undecided has gone from 7.0% to 6.5%. Clinton appears to be drawing from people who dislike both Trump and herself but have decided that they need to vote for one of the two major candidates. I think that’s where her votes will come from. Conceivably she could win 59%-39% if people abandon the 3rd party candidates, but I don’t think she can get above 52-53%. I’d say her max might be 53%-41%. That's the ceiling. Of course she only needs to win by one vote.

The NBC/WSJ poll also had Democrats with a 7 point lead in the generic congressional ballot. That's pretty big and would be a problem for Republicans if it holds up. I'm skeptical how much Republicans' fortunes are tied to Trump. This CBS/YouGov poll had Clinton leading by 8% in Pennsylvania but Republican Pat Toomey in a tie. I don't think the environment is good for Republicans but I'm not sure how much Trump can make it worse.

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