Friday, October 21, 2016

2016 Presidential Polls 10/21/16

Currently the state polls give Hillary Clinton a 6.7 point win. 538 has Clinton with a 6.5 point win. The RCP average is 6.0. Some people have focused on polls that have Clinton up double digits but that doesn't appear to be the most likely outcome right now. Clinton is up from 5.4 points in the state polls a week ago and was up only by 2.5 at the beginning of the month. The race is definitely moving towards her, so it's not hard to see an 8-9 point Clinton win. That'd be huge in the current partisan environment, although not the big historically.

It wouldn't be surprising if Trump shaved a few points off a Clinton win, but the race hasn't moved toward him since the beginning of the month. The debates didn't help Trump and Wikileaks revelations haven't lessened Clinton's lead. I don't know what would have to happen for the race to move toward Trump.

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