Tuesday, September 9, 2014

California Field Poll down ballot

The widely respected California Field poll gave out gubernatorial results last week showing Jerry Brown having an unsurprising 16 point lead. They've released down ballot polling results.

Lt. Governor: Gavin Newsom (D) 49%-29%
Attorney General: Kamala Harris (D) 49%-37%
Secretary of State: Alex Padilla (D) 43%-36%
Controller: Betty Yee (D)46%-32%
Treasurer: John Chiang (D) 52%-26%
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones (D) 47%-32%
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Marshall Tuck 31%-28%

It's unsurprising that Democrats are leading by wide margins. They should all win and most of them are more well known than their challengers are statewide. I'd guess that most will get 58-60% of the vote. I'm not surprised that the Secretary of State race, which is an open seat is the closest.

What is surprising is that Ashley Swearengin isn't doing better, at least more similar to how Pete Peterson is doing in the Secretary of State race. There are a number of reasons to think that while she might not win, she should be the closest challenger. If you look closer, you'll see that Swearengin has the highest percentage of people with no opinion of her. I wouldn't expect her to be well known, but she has spent some money and several other Republicans haven't spent any. Ronald Gold, the Republican running for Attorney General, has yet to file a campaign finance report. I don't know who he is. Yet not only do 52% of Californian voters have an opinion of him, but Gold has a +22 favorable rating. His Democratic opponent, incumbent Attorney General Kamala Harris, is only +20 favorability. This poll says that Swearengin has to do more to get people to know who she is before she can think of winning.

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