Wednesday, September 24, 2014

CA PPIC Poll: Democrats +10 on generic ballot

PPIC, a major California pollster, has Democratic governor Jerry Brown leading his Republican challenger, Neel Kashkari, 54%-33%. Republicans and Independents are most of the undecideds, so Kashkari would probably end up losing 60%-40% or 59%-41% if this holds up. That's about what's expected. What's interesting is that the Democrats lead the California generic congressional ballot 50%-40%. If undecideds vote the same way that the others in the poll voted Democrats would win the congressional vote 55%-45%. In 2012, Democrats won the congressional vote 62%-38%. There were, however, several races with two Democrats. I adjusted the results using similar districts in order to get an idea of how each party would've voted in 2012 and came up with Democrats winning 60%-40%.

You can certainly argue whether the GOP will take 45% of the vote in November, but if they do, it'll be an excellent year for Republicans. That means they'll improve by 10% in each district. Some will be a little more and others a little less. Democrats won 7 seats by 11% or less and 2 others by a little more than that. That many pick-ups is almost unimaginable. So that means it's hard to imagine Republicans getting 45% of the vote. But that's what this poll says.

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