Monday, April 21, 2014

More California Congressional Fundraising

CA-7 - Doug Ose has now thrown in $500k into his campaign and Elizabeth Emken has put in $285k. Igor Birman has put in $15. That's not $15k. That's $15. Birman has little COH left and Ose is the only one I know has gone up on TV. It's really Ose's primary to lose and he's clearly going all in.

CA-9 - None of Jerry McNerney's challengers have raised any money. McNerney isn't considered vulnerable but he possibly could be in the right environment. It looks like none of these candidates will have the resources to mount that challenge.

CA-15 - Ellen Corbett's challenge of Eric Swalwell is going to die in the primary, as she raised only $34k in the last quarter. I predict a 69% Democratic 31% Republican primary result. To beat Republican Hugh Bussell, who has raised $4k the whole campaign, Corbett will have to finish with 5-6% of Swalwell and that isn't likely with her fundraising.

CA-17 - Both Mike Honda and Ro Khanna had big quarters. Vanila Singh did extremely well for a candidate who'd get blown out in November. Joel Vanlandingham hasn't filed a report but still might take enough votes to get Khanna into top two. In 2012, "some dude" challengers usually took at least 20% of the party vote from bigger spending rivals. If Vanlandingham can take 20% of the Republican vote, Singh and Khanna will be neck-and-neck.

CA-21 - Amanda Renteria had a strong quarter. John Hernandez still hasn't filed a campaign finance report. I can't see how she loses to him, but I said that the last time too.

CA-24 - There's a long list of Lois Capps' challengers. Justin Fareed raised $116k last quarter. That'd be paltry elsewhere but he leads the Republican pack. Expect him to finish second.

CA-25 - Tony Strickland took in $411k. Steve Knight, who began the quarter with $22k, took in $90k. He spent all of $15k last quarter. How much campaigning can you do if you're spending $15k? Knight represents a lot of this district, but he won't beat Strickland the way he's going. Some dude Republican named Troy Castagna threw $75k into his campaign and he now has more COH than Knight. Democrat Lee Rogers raised $204k compared to Democratic rival Evan Thomas's $9k. So I think the possibility of a Republican top two is a long shot.

CA-26 - Jeff Gorell outraised Rafael Dagnesses $216k to $28k. Dagnesses challenge from Gorell's right doesn't have much of a chance if he can't get the word out.

CA-31 - Pete Aguilar and Eloise Reyes raised $262k and $206k, while Joe Baca raised $32k. On the GOP side, Paul Chabot reported $105k and Lesli Gooch reported $200k. More than half of Chabot's money came from "Other" (his old state account?) and half of Gooch's came from herself. Still, they only need enough to introduce themselves. Projections are that GOP voters will outnumber Democratic voters, so this still could be a Republican top two in 2014.

CA-36 - Ray Haynes reported raising $15k and every penny came from him. How can a seasoned legislator not raise even a few hundred dollars from individuals? His challenge to Brian Nestande, who raised $145k, looks non-serious.

CA-45 - Greg Raths threw $261k of his own money into his campaign and won't let Mimi Walters walk into top two. Walters did raise $149k, but may have a fight on her hands. That's okay, because she doesn't need much money for November. There's only one Democrat in the field and he'll finish top two regardless of what he spends.

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