CA-52: Two New Polls Look Good For DeMaio

It's rare to see a public poll on a congressional race this far out from an election. We've already had one poll on CA-52, done by a Republican firm. It showed former Republican city councilman Carl DeMaio with a 10 point lead. Even though it was done by a Republican firm, it confirmed what I said about DeMaio in March.

The Flash Report is the most influential conservative blog in California. Yes, I'm willing to admit that he's got a few more readers than I do. Jon Fleischman has gotten a hold of a poll done by the Republican California Public Safety Voter Guide that shows a primary that'd come out:

(37.8%) Scott Peters, Democrat incumbent
(34.5%) Carl DeMaio, Republican, former San Diego Council member
(5.3%) Howard Kaloogian, Republican, former California State Assemblyman

Kaloogian isn't running, and even if he were, he'd be eliminated in the November run-off. He's in there to provide a Republican primary alternative. The poll has a lot of Republicans, but that's not necessarily wrong. The district has more Republicans than Democrats and primaries tend to skew fairly. Republican.

When told DeMaio is gay, the results improve slightly for him:

(36.0%) Scott Peters, Democrat incumbent
(35.1%) Carl DeMaio, Republican, former San Diego Council member
(6.9%) Howard Kaloogian, Republican, former California State Assemblyman

If you follow the link to the survey you'll see that DeMaio loses a few Republicans, gets a couple of Democrats, and reverses Peters DTS lead. This confirms that a gay Republican would have no trouble getting into top 2. He's likely to get the Republicans who voted for Kaloogian in the general.

10News, the San Diego ABC station, commissioned respected pollster to do a one-on-one DeMaio-Peters match-up. The poll shows 48 percent would vote for DeMaio, while only 39 percent would choose Peters. Thirteen percent were undecided. Strangely, the Poll DeMaio does better in has more Democrats than Republicans, while the other poll has more Republicans than Democrats.

DeMaio looks strong right now. Of course the election is nearly 17 months away.