Republican congressman John Campbell announced on the Hugh Hewitt radio show today that he's retiring from congress at the end of the term.
This district was R+6 in 2008 and R+8 in 2012. I'm sure Democrats will pour a lot of money in here like they did in 2012, because they see Orange County as some sort of Holy Grail. Sukhee Kang lost by 17 points. Jerry Brown only did worse in 1 California district, CA-50. So I think a Republican will win by 20, but maybe if Democrats pour enough in they'll only lose by 10-12 points this time.
Who's going to run? Republican state senator Mimi Walters will be termed out in 2016. She's run statewide before, so she clearly has higher aspirations. [Edit: I joked to someone that Walters would announce in 15 minutes. Six minutes after I wrote this Walters announced she is running.] CA-45 is pretty much in Orange County Supervisor Patricia Bates' district. So she's a possibility. Steven Choi, Mayor of Irvine, is fairly new to the job, but Irvine is the biggest city in the district.
There are a number of Republican legislators or former legislators, like Tom Harman, who are from outside the district. All five Orange County supervisors are Republicans. Being from outside the district isn't a big deal when running in California. Candidates from 10 miles outside a district run all the time here. They might not want to wait for Dana Rohrabacher or Ed Royce to retire.
Edit: An Orange County source mentioned Rancho Santa Margarita Council Member Tony Beall and Aliso Viejo Council Member Mike Munzing as possible candidates. She expects a free for all.