The other way to see it is that Ruiz actually beat Barack Obama in the district, something no other Democrat in a competitive district did. Was this a fluke? A poor campaign by Bono Mack? Or is Ruiz that strong a candidate?
The NRCC is trying to sell fluke. They cite a poll that shows Nestande leading by 3%. I don't know who Harper polled for but they are a Republican firm. So Nestande's total may be skewed. Still, I'd expect Ruiz to be leading by 8-10% at this point. So this one should be close.