I wanted to see how the 2012 congressional elections would’ve gone if the states weren’t drawn by partisan legislatures. I drew the states in DRA using the following criteria: 1) No consideration for Obama-McCain 2) Compact, keeping counties mostly intact and respecting COI 3) Keeping majority-minority districts.
I restricted my drawing to states drawn by partisan legislatures. While some other states may have had maps that favored one party or another they were, theoretically, drawn in a non-partisan or bi-partisan fashion.
In order to determine who would’ve won I gave the party a pick-up if the difference between old and new Obama-McCain would’ve been enough to flip the district when added to the actual result. If a district went from McCain by 5 to Obama by 5 and was decided by less than 10 points, it was a flip.
There were some districts where the congressional result was one-sided due to one party not really trying. If the new district was in swing territory I gave that party a 0.5 district pick-up. If a district moved so far that it was D+5 or R+5 I gave it to the other party regardless of congressional result. If there was no real change in the district, I kept it with the party that won it.
Maryland – It’s a pity that amendment didn’t pass. My map has Republican leaning districts north of Baltimore and in Western Maryland and a swing district between Baltimore and Washington. They weren’t Republican enough for me to give the GOP full wins.
Result: Republicans +1.5
Ohio – My map created swing districts in Cincinnati, northern Ohio, southeast Ohio, the Cleveland suburbs, and a Democratic district in Canton-Akron. Probably a little generous to Democrats.
Result: Democrats +3.0
Illinois – Roskum and Lipinski’s districts turn into swing districts, but they cancel each other out. My draw for Walsh, Dold, and Schilling would’ve resulted in Republican wins.
Result: Republicans +3.0
Pennsylvania – It didn’t change nearly as much as I would’ve thought. Kelly’s Erie district becomes swingy, as does Charlie Dent’s Lehigh Valley. Mike Fitzpatrick and Jim Gerlach see no real change in their districts since Allyson Schwartz takes up Northeast Philadelphia and lower Montgomery. Pat Meehan’s district was drawn in all of Delaware and part of Chester counties and becomes swing.
Result: Democrats +1.5
Texas – This isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it’d be. Democrats would gain an Austin district and a Hispanic district in Dallas county. Houston is a little funky. Culbertson’s district becomes swingy, but so does Gene Green’s Hispanic majority district.
Result: Democrats +2.0
Georgia – Sanford Bishop and Rob Woodall end up in swing districts.
Result: No change
Massachusetts – While Keating’s district becomes a bit swingy, it probably wasn’t swingy enough to be competitive.
Result: No change
Indiana – there were a few changes, but they were mostly in safe Republican districts. IN-2 and IN-8 showed no real change.
Result: No change
North Carolina – NC-8 and NC-9 would’ve been Obama won districts and gone Democratic. NC-11 becomes swingy.
Result: Democrats +2.5
Wisconsin – Because the state has rural Republican/Democratic mixes, there was real change in WI-1, 7, or 8. Tom Petri’s district did move to swing territory.
Result: Democrats +0.5
Michigan – MI-7 and MI-8 become Democratic enough that they’d have flipped. MI-4 and MI-10 become swingy, but do does MI-12.
Result: Democrats +2.5
Florida – This is another one that I expected to go more Democratic. I got rid of the snake-like FL-5 and ended up with a swing district in Jacksonville and Bill Young’s St. Petersburg district becomes swing. It’s a little tricky in Dade County. FL-26 would become more Republican and FL-27 more Democratic. I counted them as cancelling each other out. The only real flip is that Democratic gain a second Orlando area seat.
Result: Democrats +1.0
Overall, the non-partisan redistricting would’ve resulted in Democrats picking up 8.5 more seats, for a total of 209.5. This is about 1-2 below what I expected, but it still would’ve been a nice gain. Contrary to what the Democratic meme is on the web Democrats wouldn’t have won 218 seats with non-partisan redistricting everywhere.
No comments:
Post a Comment