The run-off for SD-4, Doug LaMalfa's district, is this Tuesday for those of you who are in election withdrawal.The election will be between Republican Jim Nielsen and Democrat Mickey Harrington. The primary, which occurred on election day, produced a Republican landslide 61.3%-27.7%.
While we certainly got one-sided Republican primaries last June, the results of the November election were far closer. Republicans won a paltry 5 senate seats in November. Barack Obama got between 41.1% and 49.8%, two party, in each. The Democrat running in the general election got between 2.0% and 6.5% less than Obama.
In this district, Barack Obama got 45.8% of the vote, roughly mid-way between what he got in SD-23 and 37. While the Democrat in those elections got 43.0% and 43.7%, the Democrat here got 27.7%. Even if we credit all the NPP votes to Democrats we still end up with 38.7%, well below Democratic performance in similar districts.
Nielsen is certain to win. What's important for 2014 will be by how much. If Harrington gets below 40% it'll be easy to dismiss his performance as stemming from a low-turnout special election. If he gets in 41% or higher it might be a great sign for Democrats. Getting within 5% of Barack Obama now could mean a very strong 2014 in the Golden State.
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