California Assembly 2014

While the California state senate results weren’t surprising, the state legislature results were. I expected Republicans would win 28-30 assembly seats and they managed only 25. Republicans won only one district Jerry Brown won and even lost a district John McCain won. Barack Obama won that district narrowly. So the GOP can still say they didn’t lost any Romney districts.

While Republicans won’t drop below 11 senate seats, they could certainly drop below 25 assembly seats. On the other hand, the GOP appears unlikely to get 1/3 of the senate seats but could easily gain the 2 seats they’ll need to get to 1/3 in the assembly.

Here are the potentially competitive seats:

AD-76 - Rocky J. Chavez (R), Obama 49.9%, Brown 43.0%
Democrats didn’t field a candidate in 2012 in this North County San Diego district and that’s kind of a pre-requisite to winning. I don’t think they have a shot in 2014, but Obama barely lost here.

AD-77 - Brian Maienschein (R), 60.1%-39.9%, Obama 49.2%, Brown 41.3%
Dianne Feinstein won this district and Democrats did field a candidate here. That candidate lost by 20%, however, and it shouldn’t be in play in 2014.

AD-36 - Steve Fox (D), 50.1%-49.9%, Obama 50.2%, Brown 45.3%
Steve Fox was losing the election throughout the count and was picking up 54% of the late ballots. He needed and got 2/3 of the votes of the final batch of ballots and won by 145 votes. Unless 2014 is a complete disaster for the GOP, this district flips back to Republicans.

AD-60 - Eric Linder (R), 51.8%-48.2%, Obama 52.6%, Brown 47.6%
Democrats were surprisingly strong in Riverside county and they came close in this Corona based district. It could be competitive in 2014, but 2016 is more likely.

AD-8 - Ken Cooley (D), 54.3%-45.7%, Obama 53.1%, Brown 53.8%
This was the only district in the state where Obama didn’t beat Brown. The district overlaps the 7th congressional district in suburban Sacramento. Carly Fiorina won here, but Meg Whitman didn’t because of her stance on union pensions. The GOP should have a shot, but Cooley will be favored.

AD-65 - Sharon Quirk-Silva (D), 52.0%-48.0%, Obama 53.2%, Brown 45.5%
While not as surprising as AD-36, it’s always surprising when Democrats in places like Cypress and Fullerton. The 2010 results should be encouraging to the GOP. Republicans got clobbered in 2010, but Tony Strickland won the district 44.4%-39.7% and Mimi Walters narrowly lost it 43.0%-42.9%. Since 1986, no Republican has done worse than Walters for a statewide position. This should be a prime target for the GOP in 2014.

AD-44 - Jeff Gorell (R), 52.9%-47.1%, Obama 53.5%, Brown 47.3%
Tony Strickland and Todd Zink lost congressional and Senate seats here, but Gorrell’s district is less Democratic and was enough for the him to win. Gorrell could be in trouble in 2014, but he’ll be a better target for Democrats in 2016.

AD-40 - Mike Morrell (R), 50.4%-49.6%, Obama 54.3%, Brown 50.5%
Mike Morrell is the most endangered Republican in 2014. Obama did better here in 2012 than he did in 2008. Morrell will be term limited after the next term. So if he holds the seat in 2014, the Democrats should take it as an open seat in 2016.

AD-66 - Al Muratsuchi (D), 54.8%-45.2%, Obama 55.6%, Brown 49.3%
After how badly the Muratsuchi did in the primary, I didn’t think that he could beat Craig Huey in the general election. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Huey wasn’t going to win a district where Obama did this well. This is the closest district to me where the GOP should have a shot. I’d like to think they will in 2014.

AD-21 - Adam Gray (D), 58.2%-41.8%, Obama 57.0%, Brown 51.1%
While the numbers look bad for Republicans this is the Central Valley, and the GOP is strong here. Fiorina won the district handily. I don’t think this is a likely pick-up, but it should be on the radar.

AD-32 - Rudy Salas (D), 52.9%-47.1%, Obama 57.3%, Brown 54.4%
This district is also in the Central Valley and Fiorina won it by a similar amount. Pedro Rios’ strong performance should convince the GOP that it’s a target for 2014.

Forecast: I expect Republicans to do well, but that shouldn’t be that hard since they are so far down now. I expect AD-36 and 65 to definitely flip and the GOP to pick up another seat. Any 2014 gains could be wiped out in 2016, but why worry about that now?