One county I’ve been particularly interested in has been Palm Beach County, Florida. It has gotten redder over the last several years and I was curious if that’d continue. Here are the PVIs of Palm Beach for statewide office. PVI here is county/state.
We saw the same thing with the President. PVI here is county/national, but also county/state just to go apples and apples.
And now with 2012
So there was some movement, but not nearly as much as 2004 to 2008. I don’t know the final Romney-Obama numbers but I’d guess that FL-18 and FL-22, which were E and D+4 in 2008 were more Republican this time around. I think this shows Republicans made a major mistake. In their effort to save Allen West they drew an FL-22 that clearly didn’t comply with Fair Districts. Republicans lost that district and lost FL-18 also, mostly because they drew it into St. Lucie County. If they do a redraw I think there’s a compact Palm Beach/Martin County district that a Republican will win.