Palm Beach County

One county I’ve been particularly interested in has been Palm Beach County, Florida. It has gotten redder over the last several years and I was curious if that’d continue. Here are the PVIs of Palm Beach for statewide office. PVI here is county/state.

Attorney General
2006: D+16
2010: D+12

Agriculture commissioner
2006: D+15
2010: D+8

CFO
2006: D+12
2010: D+6

Governor
2006: D+15
2010: D+10

We saw the same thing with the President. PVI here is county/national, but also county/state just to go apples and apples.

President (county/national)
2004: D+12
2008: D+8

President (county/state)
2004: D+13
2008: D+10

And now with 2012

President (county/national)
2004: D+12
2008: D+8
2012: D+7

President (county/state)
2004: D+13
2008: D+10
2012: D+8

So there was some movement, but not nearly as much as 2004 to 2008. I don’t know the final Romney-Obama numbers but I’d guess that FL-18 and FL-22, which were E and D+4 in 2008 were more Republican this time around. I think this shows Republicans made a major mistake. In their effort to save Allen West they drew an FL-22 that clearly didn’t comply with Fair Districts. Republicans lost that district and lost FL-18 also, mostly because they drew it into St. Lucie County. If they do a redraw I think there’s a compact Palm Beach/Martin County district that a Republican will win.