Wednesday, November 7, 2012

California Uncounted Ballots

I don't know how many ballots are uncounted, but we are 4 million ballots below 2008 now. The SoS doesn’t have a site that I can find for uncounted ballots, but they did in June. This is a VBM report as of Tuesday.

This is D+7, which is favorable to the GOP.

It took the SoS a month to count all the primary ballots and the final results moved a little bit towards the GOP. It wasn’t much, but when you consider that the primary results were big Republican wins, any move toward them is good for them.

The current results aren’t very Republican. So if the VBM is in fact as Republican as this report indicates, then the GOP should improve quite a bit. If the remaining CA-52 ballots are 40%R/34%D, then Brian Bilbray should win. I don’t know how many ballots are left uncounted, however, and what the partisan make-up of the current ballots are. If this is the partisan make-up of the uncounted ballots then Bilbray should win, Strickland and Bono Mack should improve, and Lungren is even money.

That said, my forecast for the election was skewed towards the Republican party based on this very data. So draw whatever conclusions you want.

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