California Preview

There’s a misperception that California is a blue state like New York or Vermont. The closest comparison is Illinois, a state with very blue metro areas and very red areas elsewhere. Since 1990 there have been 51 statewide elections and no Republicans has gotten less than 35.2% of the two party vote. All of the Republican senate and gubernatorial candidates were below 37%.

Senate – Elizabeth Emken is unknown and unfunded. In some states she’d struggle to get 30%. In California she’ll get 38-41%. Just because her name is on the ballot.

In the last ten years we haven’t had competitive districts in California, leaving people unable to gauge the relative strengths of the parties in the state in congressional and legislative races.

When you don’t have competitive races, you don’t need quality ground games. You don’t need battle tested candidates who can run good campaigns. How good are these parties at winning seats? Just because the Democrats have a massive statewide registration advantage. There have been areas that they’ve never won but appeared to be getting bluer. Can Democrats win in the Inland Empire? The Central Valley? Orange County?

Thus we don’t know how the two parties will do in a D+3 or an R+3 district. Republicans have traditionally outperformed their registration and California was unique in that Barack Obama won 8 Republican districts in 2008 and his party won none of those seats. It was a lot easier when the districts weren’t expected to be competitive. Do the Republicans have a strength that goes beyond some of their numbers?

The latest VBM shows a 6.3% return advantage for Democrats, very low considering their 13% registration advantage. VBM ballots will make up nearly half the ballots cast. The way things look right now Democrats will creep close to 7.0% when all the absentees are in. This poor performance is counter to the Democratic philosophy nationwide that encourages absentee and early voting. Campaigns love it, as each vote it gives them one less person to get out to the polls. So ballots cast so far indicate a good day for the GOP.

Mittmentum could be a possible factor. Obama’s margin figures to be around 10 points less across the board. It’ll be more in majority White districts, maybe as high as 15-20%. I don’t know if this’ll help Republican candidates since Obama’s lofty 2008 didn’t hurt them then.

CA-3 – Sophomore rep John Garamendi has had underwhelming elections in 2009 and 2010 and that isn’t exactly the sort of candidate you want to put in a district that goes from D+13 to D+3. Republican challenger Kim Vann has shown surprisingly strong fundraising numbers and is a favorite of the NRCC. Garamendi did break the 50% barrier in June and there isn’t much outside interest here. It’d be a surprise, but not a complete shock, if Vann won. Pick: Garamendi

CA-7 – Is Dan Lungren a battle tested incumbent who can withstand a challenge or a vulnerable congressman ripe for picking? Lungren’s surprisingly strong June win would suggest the former but this district has been barraged with ads from outside groups. At last count 8 different groups have run ads opposing Lungren. Larry Sabato just picked Bera and David Wasserman of Cook Political told me that he expects Bera to win. Mitt Romney will win the district and it’s likely too Republican for Bera. I like Lungren’s decisive win without elevated turn-out in June. Pick: Lungren

CA-8 – There’s been no polling in this district making it hard to judge but Gregg Imus seems to be a great story in that he’s raised little money and gotten this far and seems destined to lose in a landslide. Imus is a great example of how Top Two has changed California. He was expected to finish way down the pack in June but an enormous field and a strong grassroots effort propelled him into November. A grassroots effort may be enough to get him 15% in the primary, but it won’t be enough to get him 50% in the general election. To win Imus will have to appeal to people who aren’t anti-illegal immigration movement conservatives and he can’t do that. Pick: Paul Cook

CA-9 - Jerry McNerney is another Democratic incumbent who has been underwhelming in the past. The district appeared to be trending Republican, but the Democrats did a massive registration effort and reversed Republican gains. His challenger, Republican Ricky Gill, raised a boatload of cash, and it seems unlikely that McNerney will be able to separate himself from Gill by much. Expect this race to be very very close. Pick: McNerney

CA-10 – Conventional wisdom, Democratic pollsters, and Larry Sabato say this race will be close, but I fail to see it. Congressman Jeff Denham is battle tested from his time in the assembly, he won in June by 16 points, and this district is moving rightward more than any other in the state. My projections say that VBM is already 37% of total votes and the returns are actually more Republican than June.

Mitt Romney is going to win here too, possibly by double digits. I’d be surprised if it’s close, let alone Democrat Jose Hernandez winning. Pick: Denham

CA-15 – This is a Democrat v. Democrat race to see who can vote more in line with Nancy Pelosi, so it might not be a natural for Republican interest. It’s the most interesting race in the state to me. Congressman Pete Stark is a lunatic whose bizarre behavior this cycle has made headline after headline. Democratic challenger Eric Swalwell is running a David v. Goliath campaign but he should be able to appeal to the Republicans and independents in the district that make up half the voters. They despise Stark and that should be enough for them to vote for Swalwell. Pick: Swalwell

CA-16 – The Central Valley can be a graveyard for Democrats. They have a 15 point registration edge here and that’d be enough for a safe seat almost anywhere else in the country. Jim Costa seriously underperformed in 2010 and this district was more McCain in 2008. Republicans failed to get a top grade challenger and Democrats actually got more votes in June. Game over. Pick: Costa

CA-21 – John Hernandez has raised less than $100k for the entire cycle and finished September with $17k in the bank. He’s had no outside help. Democrats do have a huge registration advantage but that wasn’t a problem for David Valadao to getting 57% in the primary. Early mail in ballots had a 16 point Democratic advantage. That’s dropping like a brick and is now 7 points. Pick: Valadao

CA-24 – Democrats Lois Capps and Republican challenger Abel Maldonado look dead even. Tie goes to the incumbent. Pick: Capps

CA-26 – I thought the Democrats’ failure to recruit a Ventura County candidate would doom them here. Julia Brownley is from Santa Monica and people live in Ventura County because they want to avoid anything to do with Santa Monica. Brownley has downplayed her liberalism and has been well received in the district. Republican Tony Strickland is from here and has represented the area in the state senate. This is another one that’s tough to gauge, but Republicans have a VBM advantage. Pick: Strickland

CA-30 – Is there more to pile on this one? Howard Berman has racked up endorsements from both sides of the aisle, but Brad Sherman is the better retail politician. He’s led by 10 points or more in ever poll and has been ahead with almost every demographic. Berman was hoping for magic with Republicans and independents but when you have to choose between Democrats a Republican is going to choose the one more attentive to his district. Pick: Sherman

CA-31 – There hasn’t been any polling here, but Republican state senator Bob Dutton has always seemed to be running an underdog campaign against Republican rep Gary Miller. Pick: Miller

CA-35 – Gloria Negrete McLeod wanted this district badly. And then Rep. Joe Baca moved in. Baca has gotten Republican support from fellow House colleague Gary Miller and has outspent Negrete McLeod dramatically. Michael Bloomberg is reportedly coming in with outside spending but it seems silly to do it after so many people have already voted. Pick: Baca

CA-36 – Democrats don’t win in Riverside County, particularly against a battle tested vet like Mary Bono Mack. The district is more Republican than her old one, it’ll go Romney, and Bono Mack won in June by 16 points. Ruiz has trotted out a poll that shows him ahead by 3, but Bono Mack countered with one that had her leaning by 17. The mid-point of that looks good for Bono Mack. Pick: Bono Mack

CA-41 – Republicans wiped out a lot of the Democratic registration advantage with a controversial registration campaign that may have registered some Democrats as Republicans. That makes the district harder to read. This is Riverside County, and Democrats have never won a House seat where the majority of the district is in Riverside. I’m hesitant to think they can reverse that but I have to pick a Democrat at some point. Pick: Democrat Mark Takano

CA-47 – In full disclosure I’ve volunteered for Gary DeLong, so take this preview with that in mind. Democrats have a 12 point registration advantage, yet the GOP got more votes in the primary. VBM is only D+2 right now. DeLong is a good fit for this district and is popular in the heavily Democratic Los Angeles county portion of the district. Pick: DeLong

CA-52 – This district had a difficult to read primary result. It was R+10, but Republicans only won by 2.5 %. Republicans usually do better than turn-out, not worse. Polling has been crazy. Both candidates produced polls showing them leading but an independent poll had Bilbray leading by more than Bilbray’s poll did. SurveyUSA then came out with a poll of the two even. The VBM so far is more Republican than any competitive district in the state and Mitt Romney will win here. Pick: Bilbray

I have Democrats finishing with 33 seats and Republicans with 20, a 1 seat gain for the GOP. I’m going completely against conventional wisdom here, but that’s the way I like it. After all, if I’m wrong no one will care, but if I’m right, I’ll be in exclusive company.

Now onto the state senate.

SD-5 – People are way too caught up looking at voter registration. Democrats do have a 3 point advantage here, but that was the same as the primary when Republicans wiped the floor with Democrat Cathleen Galgiani. I see nothing to suggest a different result this time. Pick: Republican Bill Berryhill.

SD-27 – Todd Zink is a political neophyte and Fran Pavley is veteran politician. Zink won in June and right now more Republican ballots are in. The buzz is negative about his chances, however. I’ve done some volunteering for Todd Zink. So I’m not making a pick. Read into that what you will.

SD-31 – Republican Assemblyman Jeff Miller is facing off against Democrat Richard Roth. This is Riverside County and will test whether the GOP is still the undisputed leader here. The district’s fundamentals favor the GOP, but I’ll stick with the way I saw it in my congressional pick. Pick: Roth

SD-39 – On paper this looks like a district Republicans should be competitive in. In reality, Democratic Assemblyman Marty Block is way too formidable. Pick: Block

Republicans need to win three of these contests to prevent Democrats from getting a 2/3 margin in the state senate. That’s not out of the question, but I favor the Democrats.

The assembly looks slightly better for the GOP. There are a lot of competitive districts with people you’ve never heard of, and I can’t say I know a lot about all of them.

Democrats have 44 safe seats and will win AD-9, 16, 21, 48, 49, and 61. That’ll give them 50.

Republicans have 21 safe seats and will win AD-8, 12, 32, 35, 40, 44, 60, 65, and 66. That’ll give 30. That’s exactly the make-up of the assembly now.

The swingiest district is probably the 49th and I could see the 9th, 48th, and 61st going the GOP’s way. The 8th and 32nd are districts where Democrats have registration advantages, but the 8th isn’t that significant and the 32nd is in the Central Valley where Democratic turn-out is weak.