The new California registration numbers are out. California started allowing online registration in September. As has been widely reported that a lot more Democrats registered than Republicans. There were 487k Democrats, 160k Republicans, and 339k others. That's a lot of Democrats and they've gained 1% in registration statewide. So it's now D+14.3%, not D+13.3%.
Most competitive districts showed a 1-1.5% Democratic increase, with three of the biggest being CA-9, CA-41, and CA-47, three competitive districts that already favored Democrats. Most of the other competitive districts had smaller, but not insignificant increases. The districts showing no real increase are from the Central Valley, CA-10, 16, and 21. Do you guys have computers there?
This could be a huge negative for Republicans. There are no two ways about it. Are these people real voters? They didn't register until registering meant they could do so at home in their pajamas. Will they show up on election day when they haven't before?
What we do know is that 3.5 million ballots have been mailed in and Democrats have a 6.4% lead in ballots returned. When you have a 14.3% registration lead that's awful. In all other states Democrats are the ones emphasizing early/absentee voting, not the GOP. Republicans are ridiculed for thinking they'll catch up on election day. Well, they have to do things backwards here.
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