Monday, September 10, 2012

Today's Polls

There are two national polls out today, one from Investor's Business Daily and the other from CNN. The CNN poll closely aligns with the numbers from Rasmussen and Gallup, while the IBD number of Obama +2 shows a closer race.

While Rasmussen and Gallup don't publish party ID, CNN does. They're using party ID of 40%D/29%R/31%I. In 2008, party ID was Democrats +7. So a Democrats +11 party ID advantage would indicate a landslide of historic proportions. Anyone else feeling that?

An Obama +4.5 advantage is 2.6 points closer than 2008, but 4.5 points more Obama than pre-convention. We have the following state polls

North Carolina:
PPP - Obama +1
SurveyUSA - Romney +10

New Mexico:
Albuquerque Journal - Obama +5

PPP - Obama +5

We don't know how well these three states reflect the country as a whole. We're going with what we have for national, so we'll have to use these for the states. The two PPP numbers are similar to what Obama won the states by in 2008. So, a 2.6 point swing would be too much.

The problem, however, is that when the national average was even PPP was Obama +3 in Ohio and even in North Carolina. So, while the national average has moved 4.5 points toward Obama, PPP moved only 2 and 1 point toward Obama.

The other two polls indicate a stronger shift towards Romney. Obama +5 in New Mexico and Romney +10 in North Carolina represent a roughly 10 point shift from 2008. If national shifted by 10 points, Romney wins by 3. It's too early to tell, but I'm skeptical there's been much of a shift.

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