Republican Chances in the Election

There's been a lot of negativity flying toward the GOP the last few days, something Politico has picked up on in their stories about how President Obama has the advantage and Republicans might not take over the senate.

There have only been two polls since the start of the Republican convention. Both are tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup. Both show a strong shift towards the President. Part of this hysteria was pro-Romney super PACS pulling out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Apparently Wisconsin is on the buy. Michigan and Pennsylvania haven't been conceded either. We should keep in mind that convention bounce is quite common. In 2004 George W. Bush came out of the Republican convention leading by double digits. The polls ended up really close. There was something similar in 2008. John McCain led after the Republican convention. That didn't turn out so well for him.

We need to keep that in mind that these are only two polls and that another 8-10 pollsters will be out there. A trend showing up in 1 or 2 pollsters might just be the polls they're doing. We should keep that in mind with any polls coming out this week and take a fresh look the following week. This doesn't indicate it's over. There have been two state polls that have come out this weekend. Again, that's a very low number, as you will often find a half dozen state polls in a single day. Regardless, the New Mexico poll shows the race close. If you delve further into the poll you'll see that the poll is 48%D/32%R, the registration numbers. The state was D+7 in 2004, D+10 in 2006, and D+16 in 2008. If it's D+10 instead of D+16 this race is tied.

The PPP poll in Ohio looks bad for Romney at Obama +5, but a closer look shows PPP had Obama +3 in the last poll. In fact, Romney went from down 10 points with independents to up 2 points. He drops in the poll because Obama picks up 2.5% of Romney's Republicans, 2.5% of his Democrats, and the poll has more Democrats. If this is the President's bounce, Mitt doesn't have a lot to worry about.

The senate has always been around a 50-50 proposition. The most Republicans looked like they'd get was 52 seats when things looked good. Now it looks like they'll get 50. This despite an almost certain loss in Maine. The GOP has 12 pick-up possibilities. A little push and they can get 52-53 seats. It's still up in the air.