Saturday, September 22, 2012

Sherman leading Berman

An independent poll has come out in the CA-30 grudge match between Democratic congressmen Howard Berman and Brad Sherman. It's very good news for Sherman and very bad for Berman. Sherman leads by 11 points, 37%-26%, which is always an uphill climb. Berman's camp can sight that Sherman is far below the 50% he'll need to win and a lot of undecided voters.

Unfortunately for Berman, it's difficult to see him winning over enough of those undecideds to bridge the gap. If we assume those that answered the survey are set, then the remaining 41% are who they're after. Brad Sherman is leading with men and women, Whites, Asians, and Hispanics, every religion, every income level, and education level except one. Berman leads by 1 point with conservatives.

The problem there is that there aren't many conservatives in the district. Sherman leads with Republicans, assumably doing better with those who identify as moderate. Howard Berman is that he needs to win 65% of the remaining voters. If this were a Republican running against a Democrat, he could count on 90% of his party, but Howard Berman has no core constituency that'll get that for him. He won't pick up 90% of any remaining group. So he has to turn around every group with 65% of their votes. That won't happen.

Berman has to flip voters who are already leaning Sherman to win this race. Maybe he should campaign with Mitt Romney to get more Republicans. It really wouldn't hurt.

Edit: I should mention that Berman sought the Republican Party of Los Angeles County endorsement (RPLAC). The discussion ended when it was pointed out that the RPLAC charter prohibits the Republican organization from endorsing anyone that's not a Republican.

No comments:

Post a Comment