Friday, September 14, 2012

Riverside Republican Registration

The 60 days prior numbers haven't come out from the state but Riverside County has theirs out.As I mentioned yesterday there was a big Republican registration surge.Below are the May and September registration numbers for contested Congressional, Senate, and Assembly districts in the county.

Riverside county

There has been a dramatic rise in CA-41 Republican registration since May. Republicans won in June 55%-45%. That was certainly with elevated Republican turn-out, but these numbers indicate that while many Democrats who didn't turn out may go to the polls, thee are a lot of new Republicans that should offset that. This was definitely a Democratic leaning district, but now it's fairly neutral.

CA-36 has been mostly flat with a slight Democratic edge. That's okay, considering that Mary Bono Mack won in June 58%-42%.

SD-31 is a district Republicans need to win to prevent the Democrats from getting 2/3 of the vote. They've wipe out the Democratic registration advantage. That wipes out the Democrats big advantage in this district.

AD-61 also looked tougher. Republicans did beat Democrats by 7 points in June, but the big registration advantage in the district made it look daunting to repeat the feat. Maybe not.

There was speculation that AD-60 would be competitive because Barack Obama won it. Republicans romped in June and the district is a lot more Republican now.

Democrats do not win elections in Riverside County. The Riverside Democratic Party's track record makes their Orange County counterpart look like the '27 Yankees. So they don't have elected officials to run.

The big change is that there have never been districts this Democratic. Due to the new term limit rules, anyone elected this year can serve 12 years in the same house of the legislature. If Democrats are ever going to win races, it has to be here and it should be now.

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