Part of President Obama's lead in some polls is oversampling Democrats/Obama voters. Quinnipiac is out with polls today in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. They use a sample where Obama won Florida by 13 points, when he actually won by 3, Ohio by 15 points, when he won by 4, and Pennsylvania by 14, when he won there by 10. If you looked at these and the Party ID numbers, you'd think Democrats dominate each state.
Of course all three states have Republican governors and Republicans controlling both houses of the legislature. And this isn't a phenomenon brought on by the Republican wave of 2010. The GOP controlled most of those state legislative houses before then and did well in statewide elections in 2006.
If we use more realistic Party ID breakdowns, Obama's 6 point Florida lead becomes a 2 point Romney win. His 6 point Ohio lead is a tie. His 11 point Pennsylvania lead goes to 10, as Pennsylvania isn't as egregious.
It's the same thing for the senate races. They have Democrat Bill Nelson leading by 7 in Florida. A more realistic sample would have Nelson by 1. They have Democrat Sherrod Brown leading by 12 in Ohio. A more realistic sample would cut that to 5.
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