Democratic congressman Jerry McNerney has put out an internal poll that shows him beating Republican nominee Ricky Gill in a landslide 49%-33%. Of course internal polls are suspect because the only reason to put one out is that you want the people with whom you're talking, to believe that you're doing better than popular opinion. Knowledgable people often have two reactions, adjust the poll by whatever you believe internal bias is or ignore the poll altogether. Even if you do these things, the lead is still in your head. Here are a few things to consider:
1. In 2008, the same pollster had McNerney winning by 10. He won by 1.
2. This was a D+4 district in 2008. That means Barack Obama did 4 points better than his national average. They have Obama leading 53%-38%. If it's 53%-38% Obama and remains D+4 then Obama is winning 49%-42% nationally. He isn't leading by 7 in any national poll. If it's D+4, then President Obama should be leading 51%-41%..
Wait a second, you might say. Maybe this district is moving to the left. Everybody says that California is moving to the left.
1. The Democratic registration advantage has fallen from 9.5% to 7.3% in the last year, the second biggest GOP gain in the state. There may be districts that are becoming bluer, but it'd be really odd in a district that Democratic registration has fallen by 1,700 people while Republican registration increased by 4,500.
2. Republicans won the primary 52%-48%. That'd mean McNerney has moved the district by 20 points and people are abandoning the Republicans in droves.
3. Republican primary turn-out was better than registration in the district, but not significantly as it was in a number of other districts. McNerney could certainly win in this district but winning by 16 would mean this district would go have a participation advantage well beyond their registration advantage.
Any of these things could be true, but there's no evidence to support it. Evidence supports that the opposite would happen.
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