Ryan Bounce?

Was there a Ryan bounce in the polls? It's tough to tell. Only two pollsters did national polls this week, Gallup and Rasmussen. Both have been kinder to Romney than most others. Gallup has been consistent, candidates within two, for over a month. Rasmussen went up and down. The week finished at Obama +1, better than he's been doing with Rasmussen.

There were two polls in Wisconsin, both with a Romney-Ryan bump. This should be expected and I think it's one state where it'll hold. People talk about how a VP doesn't bring his state, but that state is rarely one that swings. Republicans have shown the last two years that if they're motivated they can win Wisconsin.

There was only one Pennsylvania poll, from Franklin & Marshall. Romney-Ryan jumped 7 points from their previous poll, which is significant. They did have the biggest Obama margin previously. So we'll see if there's a bump from pollsters that had it closer.

Florida had two polls, from Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. These are the only two pollsters to show a Republican lead since May and they didn't show a Ryan bump in either of them.

Michigan has been an interesting state this year. Rasmussen, which usually has a Republican lean, has been one of Obama's best polls. The only poll out was from Mitchell Research a local pollster. And it showed a big Obama swing.

Ohio had three polls. Two of them were from pollsters who've leaned Romney, Purple and Rasmussen, and both showed bumps. The third was from PPP. They had a Romney jump in June and he remained steady.

Virginia's poll was from Purple and it had a nice Romney jump.

Purple's Colorado poll, however, moved two points towards Obama.

There were two polls in New Hampshire. One, from PPP, showed a big Romney jump and the other, from a local pollster, had a tiny one.

There was a Missouri poll from SurveyUSA. They hadn't polled the state before, but they showed the race as surprisingly close. This is even more surprising because Todd Akin, considered the weakest Republican candidate, had an enormous double digit lead over incumbent Claire McCaskill. People expect Romney to outpace Akin, not the other way around.

Conclusion: Rather mixed. There were some definite Romney bumps, but there were other polls that didn't show that. I don't think the bump, if it does exist, will last except in Wisconsin. The Republican National Convention is a week away and candidates often experience a post-convention bounce.

In 2008 Obama's bounce lasted until Palin's speech. McCain got a bounce that lasted until the fiscal meltdown. So Romney-Ryan may show some strong polls next week. Then the question will be how much each convention helps the candidates.