Monday, May 14, 2012

CA-46: Last cycle's target

There's a congressional district out there that Republicans went hard after last cycle and it's moved 4 Brown-Whitman points more Republican. That sounds like an opportunity, doesn't it? The Brown-Whitman numbers are similar to those in CA-16, CA-31, CA-41, and CA-47, all districts Republicans think they could win.

Yet the GOP doesn't have CA-46 on the radar. Why? The opportunity Republicans felt they had last time fell flat. The Republican candidate lost by 14 points. The incumbent, Loretta Sanchez, runs good campaigns and she wins them. She'll survive anything. The GOP saw this and the candidates here are lackluster. Businessman Jerry Hayden is endorsed by the state party and has raised $55k through March 31. That's not much, but it's more than the "name on the ballot" guys. Here, those are fellow Republicans Pat Garcia and John Cullum.

Not only aren't the RNC and CAGOP interested in the race, but Orange County organizations like the Lincoln Club aren't either. They went hard after Sanchez the last time.

Loretta Sanchez doesn't coast and is one of the few California Democratic congressmen who've been in a fight. So it's hard to see this one developing into anything. That said, it's worth watching the June 5 just to be sure.

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