Saturday, May 5, 2012

Arena: Will Democrats be able to retake the House in November?

That's arena's question for today. I find the answers amusing. To someone like Frederica Wilson the answer is obvious. Of course the Democrats will. Why would people vote Republican?

Let me say this. The Democrats have virtually no shot of winning the House. They have less than 1%. Let's look at the experts and how many seats they currently see as Likely/Safe Republican

Cook: 211
Rothenberg: 211
Sabato: 211

How is that for a consensus? If Republicans win their likely/safe seats, the Democrats have to almost sweep all the seats remaining. That's illogical. If they were going to win that many seats, more of them would be lean/likely Democratic. Here are the seats that lean each party:

Cook: 230R/181D
Rothenberg: 237R/185D
Sabato: 233R/188D

This isn't a knock on the Democrats. It's a compliment to Republicans. The states are so gerrymandered, it'll take a big wave for Democrats to win the House. If the Democrats had been gerrymandering they'd have a good shot.

I think the Democrats would need a D+8-10 to take it, if not more. In 2006 they had a D+10 or more, usually D+13-15. In 2004, it was D+6-9 early in the year but ended D+2-3. This cycle has been a toss-up with no poll being bigger than D+4. I can't imagine a scenario, even an Obama landslide, that's going to result in Democrats taking the House.

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