Why Republicans Won’t Lose the House in 2012

Democrats have written off the House and are now planning on taking it back in 2012. There is a precedent for this. In the 1946 mid-term the Republican/Democratic make-up of the House changed from 242D/193R to 247R/188D. In 1948 Truman won re-election and reversed the make-up to 263D/172R.

If you don’t look further, this makes sense. There are flaws, however. At the time congressional districts skewed Democratic. In 6 of the previous 7 elections Democrats had at least 242 seats. In every election from 1954 to 1992 Democrats had at least 232 seats. A Republican majority could only happen when Republicans were energized, Democrats dispirited, and independents going Republican.

In 6 of the last 8 elections Republicans have had between 223 and 233 seats. Seats with a Republican PVI outnumber those with a Democratic PVI 234 to 192. The Democrats have only had the majority when the Republicans have been dispirited, the Democrats energized, and independents going heavily Democratic. If the GOP takes the House this year, in 2012, Republicans are likely to be even more energized. The Republican Party could turn independents heavily back to the Democrats. I wouldn’t put it past the GOP to blow it, but Democrats control the White House and probably will hold the Senate. Independents don’t like Obama right now. It seems unlikely they’ll turn that far against the Republicans.

There are 61 R+2 or better Democratically held seats. If these make up the bulk of the Republican wins, they’re unlikely to lose a lot of them again in 2012. The Democrats are so vulnerable this year because they 69 Republican skewing seats to the Republican’s holding only 9 Democratic seats. If Republicans gain only a net in the low 40’s they are likely to still have less Democratic seats than the Democrats have Republican seats.

A more apt comparison would be 1996. Bill Clinton was re-elected that year while Democrats closed a 4.8 million congressional vote gap to actually take a few hundred thousand more votes that year. Yet they only gained 2 net seats, changing a 231-204 minority to a 229-206 minority. Since there are 42 more Republican seats than Democratic seats the Democrats would need a lot to go right to gain the House back.