In Massachusetts Democrats outnumber Republicans 37%-12% with 51% independent/other. For the most part independents are less likely to vote. In 2006 and 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans 42%-19% and 43%-17%. While exit polls aren't available for the Brown election it could've been 35%-22%. A candidate could win taking independents 60%-40%.
In Delaware Democrats outnumber Republicans 47%-29%, with only 24% independent. In 2008 the breakdown was 48%-31%-21%. PPP has a 47%-38%-23% party breakdown. If Coons locks up Democrats, O'Donnell would have to get 90% of Republicans and 70% of independents.
RINOs have been told to hit the road, so now only is it doubtful she'll get 90% of Republicans, but many RINOs will stay home. So getting the Republican turn-out will be difficult. Getting 70% of independents is way beyond anything she can hope for.
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