At first look, it may appear that Republicans have plateaued or are declining. September is down slightly with both Likely voters and registered voters. Throughout the year, however, there have only been 2-4 likely voter polls per month. In September, this jumped to 9. With so many polls saying the same thing, the Republicans +7 in likely voters is the most reliable measure of the year. If on election day Republicans are even 4 or 5 points ahead on the generic ballot they'll likely have a huge win.