Senate Comeback

The Democrats are trailing, often dramatically, in many Senate polls. Democrats are hoping for a reversal between now and election day. Like this year, 2006 and 2008 heavily favored one party. So it’s worth looking at how the elections went from mid-September polling to election day results.

The one caveat here is that the Republicans had a dramatically bad break in late September both years, Mark Foley in 2006 and the meltdown in 2008. These incidents may have made it extremely difficult for the Republicans to come back. Such an incident could happen this year, but since the incidents were unpredictable they could happen to either party.



I’ve excluded any state where one party led by 10% or more. In two instances, Kentucky 2008 and Louisiana 2008 the trailing party closed to a 6% loss, not really very close. That’d mean North Dakota, Indiana, and Arkansas are already gone, while Arizona, Louisiana, and Iowa are definitely out of reach. New Hampshire, with an Ayotte victory, Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, and Delaware, with a Castle victory, are on the cusp of being out of reach.

The Democrats fairly easily held the seats they led by 6% or more, with only one being close. They lost all of the Republican seats except for Alaska, where Ted Stevens was convicted right before the election. I don’t think that’ll happen this year. This would put Ohio, Alaska, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania pretty much out of reach. They may be able to hope for one of them, but that’s probably the maximum. The good news for Democrats is that Connecticut is almost certainly out of reach for Republicans at this point.

The Democrats did take four seats where they were trailing by 4% or less and the Republicans took one. It’s likely that all Republican seats are safe now and that the GOP has five pick-ups (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, and Pennsylvania) in the bag. Of course, if Castle and/or Ayotte lose on Tuesday that could change. In the event that they don’t, a 48-46 Democratic seat lead seems fairly certain.

That leaves six other Democratic Senate seats. In Wisconsin, California, Colorado, and Illinois the last two polls have favored different candidates. In Washington Dino Rossi has led the last two, while the last four Nevada polls have had Harry Reid leading by 2 points, 1 point, and 2 ties. Even if something unexpected happens, that won’t put them safely in either camp, as Republicans were able to win Tennessee in 2006 and Mississippi in 2008 despite how close they were.