How Voter Composition Sets An Election

I’ve talked about the three factors which influence an election, Democratic turn-out, Republican turn-out, and independent voting. These days most people vote for their party, so in most districts appealing to the opposite party is unlikely. For an example, let’s take Arizona’s 5th district.



The voter composition and voting percentages are estimated based on the year’s turn-out and voter preference. The overall vote total is actual. Heyworth uses the district’s registration advantage to his advantage and is able to win by 6 poins without taking independents.



Low Republican turn-out, high Democratic turn-out, and the Democratic edge on independents dooms Heyworth by 4 points in 2006.



In 2008, the turn-out is even more favorable to Democrats and they kill with independents. Now, what’ll happen this year?





In the first scenario, all the factors favor Schweikert. In the second, there's good turn-out with both and the independents are split. If it’s a Republican leaning district, it’ll be difficult for the Democrats to retain it even if their voters becomes enthusiastic AND they split independents.