
The voter composition and voting percentages are estimated based on the year’s turn-out and voter preference. The overall vote total is actual. Heyworth uses the district’s registration advantage to his advantage and is able to win by 6 poins without taking independents.

Low Republican turn-out, high Democratic turn-out, and the Democratic edge on independents dooms Heyworth by 4 points in 2006.

In 2008, the turn-out is even more favorable to Democrats and they kill with independents. Now, what’ll happen this year?


In the first scenario, all the factors favor Schweikert. In the second, there's good turn-out with both and the independents are split. If it’s a Republican leaning district, it’ll be difficult for the Democrats to retain it even if their voters becomes enthusiastic AND they split independents.
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