Based on what usually happens when a President runs for re-election a good prediction would be a Democratic gain of 15 House seats in 2012 to cut the Republican advantage to 227-208. How Obama does is unlikely to change that. The losses will likely be less due to Republican gerrymandering.
Here's what I'm thinking now:
Benefitting the Republican Party
North Carolina –Right now Democrats have a 7-6 advantage in congressional seats even though this is a Republican leaning state. They have control of redistricting for the first time and it’s conceivable the GOP could draw a map where with 10 districts having a Republican lean. A more conservative map would give them 9 seats with a decided advantage. I’m going to be a little conservative and predict an 8-5 Republican delegation.
Republicans +2, Democrats -2
Georgia – Republicans can draw a pretty favorable map here too. It’s possible for them to draw out both Sanford Bishop and John Barrow, but that might be too ambitious. Instead, Republicans can draw a new Republican district and get rid of one of those two.
Republicans +2, Democrats -1
Utah – Republicans have tried to draw Jim Matheson out of a district and I think they’ll succeed this time. It shouldn’t be hard to draw four safe Republican districts.
Republicans +2, Democrats -1
Iowa – Iowa will lose a seat and that doesn’t bode well for the Democrats. There are two strongly Republican districts and three weak Democratic ones. When you make these five districts into four, you could end up with four Republican leaning districts. I think the GOP will take either the 1st or 2nd from the Democrats and win the 3rd with Latham running against Boswell.
Republicans +1, Democrats -2
West Virginia – This state keeps getting worse for Democrats. Nick Rahall survived this year due to weak competition. The state will go heavily Republican in the Presidential race and that should be enough to doom Rahall.
Republicans +1, Democrats 0
New York – While Republicans and Democrats both will have a say in redistricting, I think it won’t bode well for the Democrats. The state loses two seats. Republicans only control two New York area seats, so the Democrats will be squeezed out of one. Upstate there’ll likely be several toss-up seats, with one pitting a Democrat against a Republican. I’m giving the GOP an edge there.
Republicans 0, Democrats -2
Massachusetts – Democrats have all ten seats and the state is losing one. The math only works one way.
Republicans 0, Democrats -1
Michigan – Republicans control redistricting and that should be enough for them to gerrymander a Democrat out of his seat.
Republicans 0, Democrats -1
Missouri – Popular speculation has Republicans and Black Democrats teaming up to save both Black Democrats and sacrifice Russ Carnahan.
Republicans 0, Democrats -1
Kentucky, Connecticut, Oregon, and Oklahoma all present opportunities for the GOP. Republicans will probably pick up at least one seat in these states.
Republicans +1, Democrats 0
Benefitting the Democratic Party
Florida – Republicans hold a 19-6 edge in the congressional delegation, a ridiculously enormous edge in a state where their share of the statewide vote would result in something like 14-11. The good news for the GOP is the state is adding two districts and the Republicans control redistricting. The bad news is that Fair Districts Florida won’t allow them to gerrymander the way they like. Right now there are three districts in Palm and Broward Counties that are D+1, D+13, and D+15. Without gerrymandering these will all be Democratic districts. Maybe I’m a little pessimistic for the GOP, but a 17-10 edge would still be pretty significant.
Republicans -2, Democrats +4
Illinois – Republicans hold an 11-8 edge in a state that is heavily Democratic. Democrats should be able to squeeze four downstate Republican districts into three and then make three of the seven Chicago area seats Democratic enough to take them.
Republicans -4, Democrats +3
Texas – Like Florida, Republicans hold a disproportionately high edge in congressional seats. Here it’s 23-9. To make those 23 seats safe, Republicans will have to pack Democrats into new districts and sacrifice three of the four new seats. If they end up with a 24-12 edge, they’ll have done well.
Republicans +1, Democrats +3
California – I have no idea how the redistricting commission will impact the delegation. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats picked up five seats or the Republicans picked up three. There are strong arguments for both. I’ll choose something in between for now.
Republicans -2, Democrats +2
New Hampshire – Both districts are toss-ups, with the GOP controlling both right now. Odds are that they’ll lose one or the other.
Republicans -1, Democrats +1
Virginia – With Democrats still in charge of one House in the Virginia legislature the GOP will have a tough time creating districts where they’ll hold onto all their gains. It’s an 8-3 delegation now. A 7-4 edge will still be significant.
Republicans -1, Democrats +1
Arizona – The new seat could go either way, but I think there’ll be a new Hispanic majority district that will go Democratic.
Republicans 0, Democrats +1
Nevada – Republicans hold a 2-1 edge despite this state trending Democratic. If they can make Joe Heck safer, they’ll let the Democrats create a Democratic leaning district.
Republicans 0, Democrats +1
South Carolina – While it’s possible to create six Republican districts, I think the Justice Department will insist on them drawing a second majority minority district.
Republicans 0, Democrats +1
Washington – Population growth has been heavily in Democratic Seattle. A new district there will likely make the 3rd and 8th more Republican.
Republicans 0, Democrats +1
Ohio – Republicans control redistricting but currently have every district outside of Northern Ohio. There are too many marginal districts. Republicans may need to draw a Democratic district in Columbus, while only eliminating one Northern Ohio Democratic district. Being conservative will help Republicans retain the seats throughout the decade.
Republicans -2, Democrats 0
Louisiana – The state will lose a seat. Since it’ll retain the majority-minority district in New Orleans, it’ll be a GOP congressman who loses out.
Republicans -1, Democrats 0
New Jersey – Another one that could go either way. I have a feeling that the Democrats will come out on top.
Republicans -1, Democrats 0
Pennsylvania – Republicans control redistricting here too, but also have a high number of marginal seats. While they’ll likely squeeze the Democrats out of a seat in Western Pennsylvania, they might not be able to gerrymander that they won’t lose an Eastern Pennsylvania district.
Republicans -1, Democrats 0
113th congress: Republicans 237 Democrats 198 (Democrats +5)
I could see how Republicans could get as many as 262 seats or as few as 215, but I consider neither very likely.
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