I’ve been perplexed for a long time at why the Republican wave in 1994 wasn’t followed by a decline in 1996. After 8 of the 12 wave elections the party winning the seat declined losing at least 20 seats in the following election. Twice the difference was in the high 20’s. Twice it didn’t occur in the following elections, but did so within three elections. These two times were during the Depression and Watergate.
Democrats got back only 9 seats in 1996 and it took them 7 elections before winning the seats back. These elections in 2006 and 2008, however, were their own wave and had a decline in 2010.
So why wasn’t there a decline? Ronald Reagan. Yes, Reagan. Reagan started a conservative revolution in 1980, taking in Christian Conservatives, “Reagan Democrats,” and an incredibly Republican youth. From a congressional standpoint it looked like it happened all at once in 1994. It didn’t. Republicans only lost 5 seats at the 1986 mid-term, the smallest mid-term loss since 1962.
There was no Reagan fatigue in 1988. As a result, George H.W. Bush won the Presidency and Republicans only lost 2 seats. At Bush’s mid-term Republicans lost only 8 seats. Bill Clinton had a big win in 1992. Such a win produces coat tails, yet Democrats lost 9 seats. This marked the 4th straight election producing results that are contrary to what happens almost every other time in elections.
Each time there was a Democratic pull the electorate was becoming more Republican, negating a big Republican loss. Then, in 1994, there were finally the conditions for a Republican election. The dam holding back what had been happening gradually burst and the Democrats lost 54 seats. By this point they weren’t Democratic seats that went GOP because of one election higher Republican turn-out. This was the new reality. Enough congressional seats were now GOP leaning for Republicans to have 225-230 seats.
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