The First Poll

A common theory is that if an incumbent is below 45% in a poll and that if he or she falls behind it's over. Here's a look:


The first group are incumbents who lost and the second group are those where the incumbent won. Clearly incumbents have come back from starting with less than 45% of the vote. and a number have come back from being down heavily. Harry Reid In the 2010 Nevada Senate race is the best example of that. Being behind does mean the candidate is more likely to lose, but that's what we'd expect.

Likewise, being way ahead is definitely an advantage, but enough lost after starting with double digit leads. Notable on this list are Russ Feingold and Blanche Lincoln. Their first polls, taken in the first half of 2009, looked good. It wasn't until much later in the cycle that their losses became apparent.

There may be a magic number that shows an incumbent is vulnerable. None who've had 52% or more in the first poll have lost, although Saxby Chambliss and Mitch McConnell got scares.

So there's no number that's the kiss of death and coming back from being behind is doable. The only correlation is that the better your numbers are, the better your chances are. But that one was obvious too.