In the last week or so we've had Kent Conrad's retirement, Joe Lieberman's retirement, Denny Rehberg entering the Montana senate race, and a poll showing Jon Bruning is ahead of Ben Nelson by 11 points.
I'm upping my prediction of Republican gains from 5.1 to 5.4 seats. That's not a lot but I already had these three seats as the most likely to flip. Since the GOP only needs 4 seats for the majority, there's probably about a 65-70% chance the chamber flips.
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