Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Mea Kulpa on the National Margin

I was wrong. I thought that Hillary Clinton's final margin wouldn't exceed 1.5%. I now have Hillary Clinton's lead at 1.99%. California and New Jersey are done counting, but there are still a few states that aren't final. That includes New York. And one part of New York that hasn't updated is New York City, a treasure trove of Democratic votes. She will hit 2.00%.

I based 1.5% on two faulty assumptions. The first was that I used Michael McDonald's estimates of remaining votes. His estimates in many states were very low. He's since adjusted his spreadsheet. The second was that I expected the late vote to only be slightly more Clinton than election night. That was really wrong. Clinton won post-election night Colorado by 22 points. She won Maryland by 39 points. She won Georgia and Florida, states she lost, by 26 and 22 points. Clinton's post-election night margin in California was 34, up from 28 on election night. The post-election night vote has gone to Clinton 57.9%-34.5% so far. That's somewhat remarkable considering Clinton and Trump were separated by 0.1% after election night.

I got this one wrong. I apologize for the mistake.

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