Saturday, November 1, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/31

We had an additional 260,786 ballots, bringing the total to roughly 2.5 million. That's actually lower than 2010. Of course there are over 3.1 million more VBM ballots out there. I'm going to predict really awful turnout. We had 60% turnout in 2010. I'm thinking turnout will be 43-51%. Right now I'll choose a number in the middle, 8.4 million ballots, 47%. Democrats really need good election day turnout and it to be overwhelmingly Democratic as it usually is. They can't afford to have the low primary turnout where they didn't gain in many races.

CA-3: Inches more Democratic to D+3.0%. Still more Republican than 2012 and the primary.

CA-7: No new ballots so we don't know if the big movement to Republicans is real.

CA-9: Rut-roh. The first ballots were D+15, far better than Jerry McNerney needed to win again. It'd be difficult to see him losing to some dude, but we're now at D+6.9%, down from D+7.7% yesterday.

CA-10: No change, which serves Jeff Denham well.

CA-16: Yesterday the VBMs moved Democratic due to only Fresno coming in. Today the more Republican parts of the district did and the VBMs dropped from D+12.4% to D+11.3%, roughly what it was in 2012.

CA-21: Every county here reported except Kings, David Valadao's stronghold. VBMs moved back toward the Democrats from 9.1% to 10.4%. That should move back toward the GOP with the next returns.

CA-24: Some movement toward Democrats, from R+2.7% to R+2.2%.

CA-26: Still moving toward the GOP, now at D+2.5 down from D+3.0%.

CA-31: Inches slightly toward Republicans at D+0.9%.

CA-33: The possibilities for the GOP here might be gone, as VBMs are now at D+6.5%.

CA-36: Like CA-9, 26, and 31, this district keeps moving more Republican. It's gone from R+2.9% to R+3.3%.

CA-47: Today there were LA county returns. Yet the district moved toward Republicans from R+1.2% to R+1.9%. Republican Andy Whallon is some dude, but he might have a long shot chance.

CA-52: Democrats keep getting micro moves toward them. The district is now at R+8.7%. Can Peters win with such a Republican electorate? That remains the question.

State Senate
SD-12: District is now at D+4.9%, after being D+9.7% in 2012 and D+5.6% in the primary. It looks like a blowout for Republican incumbent Anthony Cannella.

SD-14: As with CA-21, there was some movement toward the Democrats due to the lack of Kings county ballots. It's now D+13.6%.

SD-32: I haven't talked much about this one since it shouldn't be competitive, but returns are now D+7.6% after being D+12.2% in 2012 and D+12.5% in the primary. Democrat Tony Mendoza should get an easy win, but Republicans are spending here for some reason.

SD-34: Virtually no change at R+6.6%.

AD-32: As with the other Central Valley districts where the same ballots are counted, the district moved toward the Democrats at D+17.3%.

AD-36: Strong move toward the Republicans from R+9.8% to R+11.2%.

AD-41: This is an blue LA county district that should go Democratic easily but there are now a few more Republican ballots in than Democratic ones. It's at R+0.1% after being D+5.6% in the primary. Probably doesn't mean anything.

AD-44: Like CA-26, the returns are more Democratic than 2012, but there has been movement toward the GOP. Moves from R+0.1% to R+0.7%.

AD-57: Another LA county district moving toward the GOP. Moves from D+5.5% to D+4.7%. Republicans won the primary when VBMs were D+8.5%.

AD-66: Moves back toward the GOP from R+2.0% to R+2.7%.

As it's the weekend there'll probably be no ballot updates in the next two days. That means that Monday night's ballot update is the final one before election day. A huge number of people will turn in their VBM ballots on election day. By the time those are turned in, they'll be included with all the other ballots and we'll get a final result. At least an election day result.

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