Friday, May 24, 2013

New Results For CA SD-16 May Mean Vidak Didn't Win

The California Secretary of State came out with an updated vote count for the CA SD-16 special election showing Andy Vidak dropping to 49.8% of the vote. Anthony York seized on it in a Tweet. The Bakersfield Californian wrote a story. If Vidak is indeed below 50%, there will be a run-off. He'd be less likely to get 50% then, although the electorate for that election would also be a low turn-out primary electorate that favors Republicans.

How did this happen?

Well, everything isn't quite what it appears to be. The Secretary of State only added ballots for Fresno and Kern counties, Vidak's two worst counties. Vidak got 37% in Kern and 44% in Fresno on election night. He had a sharp drop in these results, getting only 25% and 30%. That's a huge drop. Drops like that always make Republicans suspicious. These two counties added 14% and 16% more ballots.

Tulare had an update also, but it wasn't included on the SoS website. He had a drop here too, from 61% to 51%. Anything above 50% is good for Vidak, but 51% isn't going to make up for the big drops in the other counties, especially in the smallest county. Tulare had 17% more ballots. Tulare reports only an additional 170 ballots, all provisional. So they likely aren't all valid. Neither Fresno nor Kern county give an indication if they have more votes to count. If they do have a fair amount, Vidak could be sunk.

He got 74% in Kings and got his most votes there. Since the other three counties had 14-17% additional votes, it's inconceivable that Kings county doesn't have a similar amount. If Kings even has another 1,500 votes and the others have a minimal amount, Vidak clears 50%.

Stay tuned.

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