Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Andy Vidak Has (Unofficially) Not Won

Kings county finished counting their ballots and only had 139 remaining. So they only added 1% to their election day total, while the other counties added 14-17%. That's very strange and I have no explanation why Kings would deviate so far from the other three counties.

Kern also finished the few remaining ballots. There are 170 ballots left in Tulare but they are provisional. Even if Vidak got all of them he's also need a majority of the few remaining Fresno county ballots. He'll finish at 49.8%-49.9%.So we have a run-off.

I've said for a long time that candidates shouldn't concede if there's any possibility they could win. Perez conceded anyway. I assume she's changed her mind now.

The electorate shouldn't be more favorable to Perez than the previous one, as this will still be a spring-summer electorate and those electorate heavily favor Republicans. Perez can't expect all the votes that the minor candidates got. They were Democrats or left leaning but people vote third party sometimes so not to vote for the main candidates. She's hurt if some of those people stay home. I hesitate to overestimate Vidak's chances since this is a district with a big Democratic registration advantage that Barack Obama, Dianne Feinstein, and Michael Rubio won big. That said, we shouldn't forget there's a lot of overlap between this district and Republican David Valadao's congressional district. So it's not a one time freak occurrence.

No comments:

Post a Comment