Monday, March 19, 2012

(Pretty much) Final PVI change before and after redistricting

This is a comparison of Obama-McCain numbers before and after redistricting. It shows Republicans have made some significant gains for November's election. Almost all the numbers are in, as there are only a few stragglers. I do need to make the following assumptions:

1. New York will use the court map
2. The Kansas map is the one that passed the Kansas House
3. New Hampshire doesn't change
4. RI-1, RI-2, and KY-3 didn't change. I don't have Obama #s on them.

R+8 or better: Safe Republican
Before: 134 districts
After 151 districts

R+5-7: (Likely to Safe Republican in most of the country)
Before: 40 districts
After: 33 districts

R+5 or better:
Before: 174 districts
After: 184 districts

Democrats hold 12 such seats now. They are mostly Southern, with a few seats like UT-2 and OK-2 mixed in. These are likely safe in a non-wave year. Nice net gain for GOP

Before: 26 districts
After: 27 districts

Little change.

Before: 22 districts
After: 25 districts

Republicans were able to increase R+1-4 by 4 districts, even though they moved 10 districts out of this group.

Before: 9 districts
After: 7 districts

Before: 25 districts
After: 13 districts

Before: 22 districts
After: 19 districts

The D+ lean/likely drop from 47 to 32. That can't be good for Democrats.

Before: 28 districts
After: 30 districts

Slight increase here.

Before: 129 districts
After: 130 districts

Before: 157 districts
After: 160 districts

The small increase here is due to some Democratic gerrymanders, as well as Republicans packing districts with Democrats to win others.

R+5+: 184
R+1-4: 52
E: 7
D+1-4: 32
D+5+: 160

The number of R+ Obama-McCain seats went from 222 to 236, with the number of D+ going from 204 to 192.

The GOP is clearly the redistricting winner. It's not by as much as some people might've predicted, but the largest states (Florida, New York, Texas, Illinois, California) were states where the GOP couldn't gerrymander as much as they wanted or weren't involved in redistricting decisions.

This supports my contention that Democrats won't take the House back. If Democrats are to win the House they need to do something resembling the following:

D+5+: 100%
D+1-4: 80%
E-R+4: 55%
The GOP currently holds 27 D+ Obama seats and 66 seats that are R+3 or more D. In November if Republicans hold all the seats that are R+2 or more Republican, they'd get 224 districts. Most of the current R+ districts held by Democrats (OK-2, AR-4, NY-26 et al) are expected to flip. So Democrats are unlikely to have many R+4 or greater seats to count on.

Winning these seats is certainly not impossible, but capturing 55% of R leaning seats while winning 80% of the Democratic seats is a tall order in a non-wave year.

No comments:

Post a Comment