Sunday, March 11, 2012

California Qualified Candidate Analysis CDs 1-26

The California filing deadline was Friday, but Debra Bowen has yet to post a list of qualified candidates. I combed most of the county election websites. Some had candidate lists. Others did not. Some qualified the candidates. Other didn't.

My list is here.

There are 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats, and 2 independents in this race. Since Wally Herger retired so late, fundraising figures are unavailable. This should be a safe Republican district, and State Senator Doug LaMalfa has Wally Herger’s endorsement, as well as nearly everyone else in California.

Sam Aanestad is also a former state senator, but his endorsements seem to be limited to Congressman Tom McClintock.

Democrat Jim Reed should finish first, with LaMalfa second, but with 8 candidates it could go any way.

Fortunately for the Democrats, there is only one Republican here. Dan Roberts will win the primary without spending a dollar. Democrats Susan Adams, Stacey Lawson, Jared Huffman, and Norman Solomon all have raised more than $100,000.

Huffman has the most endorsements, but Adams is a supervisor in Marin County, the population center. Expect Lawson and Solomon to move as far left as they can. In a normal Democratic primary that might be a winning formula, but there’s only room for one occupy candidate. I don’t think any of the Democrats will pick up many Republican votes.

Four Republicans have lined up to face John Garamendi. Colusa County Supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann has lined up the endorsements and should win.

Congressman Tom McClintock will face Democrat Jack Uppal. It shouldn’t be much of a race.

Congressman Mike Thompson has two Republican opponents. Neither should be much of a challenge.

Rep. Doris Matsui will crush Republican Erik Smitt

While independent Mario Galvan is in the race, Congressman Dan Lungren and well-funded Democrat Ami Bera will advance into the fall.

I have 11 candidates listed. I don’t think they’ll all qualify, but San Bernardino County has yet to qualify anyone. This’ll be a difficult district to read, as it has mountains and desert and a bunch of small cities. San Bernardino Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and State Assemblyman Paul Cook are likely favorites.

Congressman Jerry McNerney has either two or three Republican challengers. Tech executive John McDonald is underfunded compared to 24 year old Ricky Gill. That makes Gill the favorite to face McNerney.

Congressman Jeff Denham has two Democratic opponents, Mike Barkley and Jose Hernandez, along with independent Chad Condit. Denham and Hernandez should advance.

Congressman George Miller has opponents. I’m not sure how many. Miller is going to dominate the primary. He could face Democrat John Fitzgerald in the fall.

House Minority Leader has drawn opponents from multiple third parties, an independent, and even a LaRouche organizer. Pelosi will be too busy raising money for Democrats to notice.

Congressman Barbara Lee has two opponents. I don’t think either is a Republican.

I haven’t been able to confirm any of Jackie Speier’s opponents qualified. If he did, Republican Mike Maloney will advance to the fall.

Congressman Pete Stark will face Dublin City Concilman Eric Swalwell and probably independent Chris Pareja. There doesn’t appear to be a Republican in this race. Jerry Brown only won this district 59%-35%. So there are a lot of Republicans in this district. The general could be interesting. If Swalwell can capture enough Democrats, he should be able to pick up Republicans who want to retire Pete Stark.

This is perhaps the most disappointing district for the GOP. In 2010, they took Jim Costa to a recount. In 2012, they’re fielding candidates who he’ll beat handily. Carly Fiorina won this district. So a good candidate could make a race of it. They won’t in 2012. This is Safe Democratic.

Like CA-11, 14, and 15, there are Republican votes here. I don’t know if there’s anyone to get them. Any Republican would get 30-40% in these districts. They can’t win, but it’d be nice to try.

At least the GOP has a candidate here. Not that it’ll be competitive.

Finally some good news for Republicans. State Assemblyman David Valadao is a good candidate. He’s raised money and can tap into the Central Valley’s Portuguese community. Democrats are weak in the Central Valley and weren’t able to encourage their short bench to enter.

John Hernandez is CEO of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, but that hasn’t translated into any fundraising. Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong is Hmong. That’d be great if either Fresno or the Hmong community were in this district. It’s tough to see the Democrats winning here.

Congressman Devin Nunes has an opponent… from a few hundred miles away in Silicon Valley. I don’t know if Congressman Kevin McCarthy has an opponent. If Republicans regret not fielding candidates in the Bay area districts, Democrats should regret not making McCarthy break a sweat.

Rep. Lois Capps should have her first competitive race since 2000. The primary will give an indication whether that’ll happen. Former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado has the money, name recognition, and a strong base in Santa Maria. His vote to increase taxes has left him with animosity from the Republican base. Some would rather Lois Capps win than Maldonado. Chris Mitchum is underfunded, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he beats Maldonado in the primary. Maldonado gives the GOP a fair chance in November, while Mitchum probably doesn’t.

Congressman Buck McKeon has two Republican and either one or two Democratic opponents. It won’t be very interesting.

This is one of the premiere match-ups. Tony Strickland is the only listed Republican in the race. He should accumulate most of the Republican votes. If Libertarian Akiva Werbalowsky doesn’t make the ballot, Strickland will likely get Libertarian and American Independent votes.

Democrats tried to limit their entrants, but they still managed to have four in the race. Real estate broker Al Goldberg was a late entrant. Republican turned independent Linda Parks will try to steal Democratic votes, as well as those from Republican and DTS.

Assemblywoman Julia Brownley just moved into the district from Santa Monica. How will she draw votes in a district that has far fewer progressives? One of her opponents is Hispanic, Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jess Herrera. He hails from a Democratic stronghold, loaded with Hispanics.

This’ll be a tough district to predict without polling.

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