We're 21 months from election day but there's a surprising amount of news. The Club For Growth has indicated they'll likely try to beat Senator Orrin Hatch. Elections are about choices and Utah Republicans should have more than one candidate to make choices. If Hatch can't win a Republican primary in Utah he should leave the Senate
Jim Webb is rumored to be the next Secretary of Defense. Based on Virginia law, if he resigns before the end of June they'll have a special election this November. Special elections have given an indication of how the next election would turn out before. Th elections of Scott Brown and Travis Childers were highly indicative of the coming election. The problem is that it's unlikely that there will be a big edge for one party or the other like there was in 2008 and 2010. Also, both of those elections were deep in enemy territory. Virginia is a swing state. A close win by one party or the other won't tell us much. A landslide a la Bob McDonnell would say something. I don't think that'll happen.
What will McDonnell do for an appointment? A Republican because that's his party? A Democrat to replace Webb, who is a Democrat? Will he appoint a caretaker or will he appoint a candidate to give his choice a leg up?
Pete Hoekstra looks like a possibility for 2012. Michigan and Wisconsin are the top two long time Democratic Presidential wins that the Republicans have a chance to win in the Presidential election. This seat, even in a non-Republican year, is a definite possibility.
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