2012: Florida

Senate: Bill Nelson (D)
Legislature: Republicans +5 (+7%)
State Senate: Republicans +2 (+8%)
House: Democrats 6 Republicans 19
Redistricting: Republicans

Don’t let the small legislative increases fool you. Republicans hold two thirds majorities in both Florida houses and the governor’s mansion. They have 76% of the House of Representatives seats. They won the majority of Latino votes. Such dominance could be considered unusual in a state this size, but it’s shocking in a state won by Barack Obama in 2008. This isn’t a state the GOP should lose in 2012.

Exactly how redistricting will work is unknown. Republicans control all the levers, just as they did ten years ago. Amendment 6 passed in November and it says, “Congressional districts or districting plans may not be drawn to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.” The Amendment says that the districts “must be compact, as equal in population as feasible, and where feasible must make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries.” Not only are the terms vague but there’s no one designated to provide oversight. Redistricting will likely end up in court.

The 2002 Republican gerrymander was remarkably successful for the GOP. They managed to pack as many Democrats as they could in 6 districts. Rick Scott won the gubernatorial contest by 1 point. Republicans shouldn’t have such a large advantage in the congressional delegation. The state will have 27 districts in 2012. Of the current 25 districts 6 are R +7 or better and 6 are D +7 or better. Republicans will do their best to maximize their delegation, but there should definitely be losses here. A 19-8 advantage would be a gift. A 17-10 advantage is far more likely.

Bill Nelson’s senate seat is a huge opportunity for the GOP. So far they have no significant candidates to knock him off, but in 2008 no one ever heard of Marco Rubio. He turned out to be one of the most impressive candidates in 2010. Like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, controlling redistricting might not be enough to prevent losses. I expect them to only lose a handful in the four, but that’s only because of their control.