2012: Indiana

Senate: Dick Lugar (R)
Legislature: Republicans +11 (+23%)
State Senate: Republicans +4 (+12%)
House: Democrats 3 Republicans 6
Redistricting: Republican

It’s difficult for me to get my head around Barack Obama taking Indiana in 2008. He did so by the slimmest of margins and I can’t see that repeating in 2012. I’d sooner believe he’ll take Georgia than Indiana.

Lugar is under fire from the tea party as not being conservative enough lately and he seems alternately dismissive and dumbfounded at the tea party and his efforts to appeal to them. The tea party has a point. The National Journal ranks Lugar as the second most liberal Republican senator in 2009, putting him to the left of Susan Collins and as liberal as the most conservative Democrat, Evan Bayh, also from Indiana. The ACU is only slightly kinder. Even there he’s the 3rd most liberal GOP senator. I have a feeling the threat of Lugar losing a primary isn’t going away.

The GOP recaptured the advantage in the congressional delegation in 2010 and figure to keep it in 2012. The challenge for the Republican legislature is to draw a district that covers Gary, Hammond, and the surrounding areas, but also has South Bend. If they can do so, they’ll pit Joe Donnelly and Pete Visclosky against each other is a fairly Democratic district. It needs to look fairly normal, as Mitch Daniels had indicated he won’t sign a heavily gerrymandered map. Donnelly may run for governor if his district becomes unfavorable. A 7-2 delegation is certainly possible.