Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Where Trump and Clinton are Doing Better

When it comes to Presidential elections states tend to vote similarly to how they voted in the previous election. In 2008 Barack Obama won by 7 points and won Nevada by 12. In 2012 he won by 4 and won Nevada by 7. He won by 3 less points overall. The change from 2008 to 2012 was within 4 points of that (Obama gaining 1 to Romney gaining 7) in 39 of 51 states/DC. Based on the Internet polls, however, only 19 of 50 states, no one has polled DC, are within 4 points either way of 2012.

There is a caveat to looking at the changes here. We're using only two polls and both of them are Internet polls. Still, I'm not looking to hit a particular number, just that the number falls outside of a 4 point change. Since Trump is doing 1-2 points better than Romney, I'll include states where Trump's margin of win or loss is more than 6 better than Romney. They are listed in the biggest improvement to least.

Rhode Island
New York
New Jersey

Barack Obama won all these states except Indiana. These states are mostly fairly white but ones where Barack Obama did well with the white voters. They are largely in the northeast with a few in the midwest. They probably have more white working class voters than most other states. The bad news for Donald Trump is that only Maine, Iowa, and Michigan are states he can flip. New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Ohio are just beyond this list.

Here are states Hillary Clinton has at least a 4 point better margin better than Barack Obama. Considering that Clinton is losing 1-2 points off Obama's margin, this is 6-7 point better margin than Barack Obama had.

West Virginia
South Carolina
South Dakota

Mitt Romney won all these states. Clinton is showing the biggest improvement in the plains states and the border south (Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia). A few Deep South states (South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia) are further down the list. These states are ones that Romney got at least 60% of white vote, probably more than 70% in some. Trump seems to be losing the more libertarian plains/mountain states than the evangelical southern states. It's conceivable that Texas, Arizona, and Georgia could become competitive.

These polls might not reflect actual voting but it's interesting that Trump improves most in blue states and Clinton in red states. They also follow a pattern of Trump picking up working class white voters Mitt Romney didn't appeal to and losing libertarian white voters who must've liked Romney.

No comments:

Post a Comment